Equinics 2010 BTB Articles




Written by: Timmn

The Equinincs' Citizen Mile is for three-year-old fillies on the British Columbia turf.Four of the top ten divisional runners are in the field, and while that seems an obvious place to start looking for a winner, the early morning odds make a co-favorite out of one ranked as low as 170th.

It promises to be a race requiring a very wise ride.The eighteen filly field contains a lot of early speed and no filly that has won from very far off the lead.Somebody is going to get squeezed out of a chance at the first turn, and the prize may go to one that can show some patience as the battles up front play out.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1 MINESH(KY) (CRYPTOCLEARANCE x MINESHAFT x GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (IRE)) bred and trained by wispa3 (Willow Stables, 11%) Style: E/P, Odds: 8-1

Representing the EAAA Residency, the winner of the Breeders' Bowl Filly Juvenile Turf is an obvious contender.Besides being undefeated in three straight Graded Stakes races, her speed figures at the distance are compelling.�� Every time she stretched out to a mile, herfigures jumped by about ten points.She loves the distance and has won the most impressive race there is in the division.What question could there be?Well, there are two.First, she is at the rail and, while quick, does not have the greatest early speed.She figures to get pinched back.(That is assuming you believe post position matters here.Some studies in the BTB suggest they do, and that the rail is not a good place.)Second, she has been off since the Breeders' Bowl. That's over three months.Could she possibly be sharp?

PP 2 ATLANTICA(IRE) (TEOFILO x BEST OF THE BESTS (IRE) x STORMY ATLANTIC) bred and trained by nijinskaa (Spartan Racing Stables, 9%), Style: E/P, Odds: 32-1

Out of the Great Plains Residency, this one has the dubious honor of having the longest odds in the field.She has a win at the distance and is stakes placed.Her dam's wins all came at turf routes, so this seems to be her best distance and surface.Another good sign is that the barn thought nothing of the expense of shipping her here from England.Finally, doesn't Kingab have a runner out of Teofilo (or am I simply wrong again)?That should bring some good Karma.

PP 3 ZORAIDA(KY) (CORINTHIAN x SADLER'S WELLS x NASHUA) bred and trained by har (Rafa Stables, 13%), Style: P, Odds: 9-1

Representing NWRC, this is the winner of Japan's Grade I Juvenile Filly.In that race at today's distance she beat both Boiscool and Kepler Prochant.She doesn't need the lead to win, and that is a definite plus in this field.Sitting off the pace may be the lesson she was taught last time, when she was too prominent early and ended up a well-beaten favorite in an overnight stakes.If a bettor can find a way to forgive that last race, she is an obvious contender.

PP 4 TRICKY CROSS(IRE) (CAPE CROSS (IRE) x DANSILI (GB) x SIR TRISTRAM(IRE)) bred and trained by glenbuchat (Glenbuchat Stables, 27%) Style: E, Odds: 10-1

From the Benelux Residency, this lightly raced filly tried her stakes and three-year-old debut last time, and the results were encouraging.She battled for the lead throughout the race and was coming back at the end.Throw in the fact that the turf was only good that day and you can make a case that she has a chance here.It may not be such good news that the filly she couldn't quite catch, Kepler Prochant, is in the field today.A pace handicapper might like that she may have the best early foot of the inside horses and she could get a rail trip around the first turn.

PP 5 NORTH OF HELL(ENG) (DUBAWI (IRE) x ALLEGED x ROUND TABLE) bred and trained by icbomber11 (The Danby Road Connection, 22%) Style: E, Odds: 12-1

Out of the GR Simsters, this speedster will absolutely be gunning for the early lead.She made an impressive Graded debut last time, rounding out the hellish exacta with Eternity in Hell in a DelPenn Handicap.That race really proved she can handle a large field and the class, and it's feasible she could reverse things on the Supers' filly.That was a very tough field, and she is due to improve both because she is so lightly raced and because this is her first race of the year.

PP 6 RAVENHILL(IRE) (RAVEN'S PASS x A.P. INDY x NUREYEV) bred and trained by bluefox (Supertaffy Stables, 11%) Style: E, Odds: 20-1

The Midas entry will be facing 14 more opponents than she has seen in her last couple starts, and will make the leap from allowance company to Graded stakes.But all is not hopeless.She showed in a September stakes that she can compete with Zoraida, and she's very lightly raced and is improving rapidly from race to race.Taffy says she had some success with allowance runners in the last Equinics, and she ignored the counsel of one Midas member with a bad attitude who suggested that Midas not even participate in these Equinics.It's always a good idea to ignore that idiot.Best of luck to Supertaffy.

PP 7 WHIPPED(NZ) (ZABEEL(NZ) x WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER) bred by surlyn, trained by snags (Balata Golf Resort, 16%), Style: P, Odds: 24-1

The Hong Kong Racing Cub whips out this entry.She is a longshot despite her record of four wins in six starts.Her final race as a two-year-old was pretty quick, although it was in a four horse allowance field.Continued improvement could get her a piece of the purse.In her lone start in a Graded stakes, she was a close fifth and has the excuse of an off track. That's encouraging as she tries this leap in class.An older half-brother out of her dam is a multiple stakes winner on the turf.In a private interview Balata said to me, "I've looked at the other horses in this race, and they have no chance against mine." Maybe it was, "Oh, 24-1, I don't have a shot."It was definitely one of those quotes.My notes are a mess.

PP 8 BOISCOOL(KY) (WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by herbie,trained by boble14b (Boble Stables, 29%), Style: E/P, Odds: 7-1

The Blazing Saddles' entry was second choice in the Breeders Bowl Filly Juvenile Turf and just missed behind Minesh.That performance was enough to give her a top ten division ranking and favoritism in this race.She'll be right up there with all the other early speed in this race, but she has repeatedly shown that she doesn't mind a fight.She's been the picture of heart and class.In four of her five wins she's been the victor after race-long battles.There is some reason to be cautious.In the hyper-competitive life of eight-furlong racing, no horse can be good in every race, but her last race gives us pause.She was a well-beaten favorite in the Grade I Juvenile Filly, losing to Zoraida and others.�� That brings her to this race in what might be declining form and a record of no wins in two tries at the distance.Her connections hope that, instead, she used the last race as a recovery from the demanding Breeders Bowl.Dam has been an outstanding producer of stakes winners.

PP 9 FINAL CHAPTER(KY) (PULPIT x STORM CAT x SAINT BALLADO) bred and trained by touched (Old Dominion Farms, 33%), Style: E, Odds: 30-1

Anyone associated with Comedy Central must be a little touched.I admit I did a double take on Grouchy's win rate with this barn, but it is for real - he's had over 400 starts with it.This Chapter is hard to read.She's only started three times and only broke her maiden in her last start.It was her first start on the lawn, and the improvement was huge - she loves the grass.Now she tries a few new tricks.It's her first start against winners; her first stakes; her first Graded stakes; her first route; her first race as a three-year-old; her first race away from California; and I think it's her first time with the braids in her mane.Did I mention Grouchy has won a third of the time with this barn? Go, Comedy Central.

PP 10 IMPOSING JESTER(AUS) (EXCEED AND EXCEL (AUS) x RORY'S JESTER(AUS) x IMPOSING(AUS)) bred and trained by samsunga (Fitzgerald Racing, 6%), Style: P, Odds: 30-1

The Queensland entry hasn't shown a lot yet, but she's young and certainly eligible to improve.She's only tried routing once, and that was one of her poorer races.Her greatest asset is her running style in this race.She will be one of the few taken back at the beginning of the race.It will take a lot of backing up of the leaders for her to prevail, but with the furious pace, you know at least many of them will be going backwards at the end.It's up to her to pick some of them up and try to cash a check.

PP 11 POLLIACHI(JPN) (OPERA HOUSE(GB) x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) bred and trained by dundey (Dundey Acres, 12%), Style: P, Odds: 16-1

Out of the Minnesota Residency, at first she looks like just another longshot - her best speed figure is more than 10 points slower than the favorites, and she hasn't won a stakes, but don't pass over her chances too quickly.She did finish within a length of the winner in the Grade I High Flyer Stakes in October, and that race was at today's distance.Her last race, while only an allowance, was a decisive win against a full field, again at eight furlongs.Best of all, she did it coming from behind.She will surely fall behind early today.Let's see how her rally looks against a tougher field.

PP 12 MACHO NATIVE(ENG) (KINGSGATE NATIVE (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x VICE REGENT) bred and trained by sorrento (Universal Stables, 15%), Style: P, Odds: 22-1

The Universal Racing Club Residency has entered a filly with some mysterious breeding.I can't find a sim-sire named Kingsgate Native.I suspect some Machiavellian machinations.In October, Macho finished in the money in a Graded stakes at today's distance.That gives her four straight in-the-money finishes on the lawn.She did run her fastest race ever last time, her first as a three-year-old.She'll be hoping to make a move from mid-pack.

PP 13 LUCKY'S KIMBERLY M(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by naracing (Mr Lucky's, 21%), Style: E, Odds: 7-1

Ohio Thoroughbred Racing Residency brings us a filly whose breeding we can all salivate over.She's five for seven on the turf and comes off two straight overnight wins, both in times that make her co-favoritism understandable.In those last two races, she has beaten five other stakes winners, but she has never faced a Graded winner before this race.Also, this is only her second try at two turns, and her other try was the last time she lost.She can use the excuse of an off track for that loss and slow (for her) time.In a race with lots of early speed, she may be the speed of the speed.

PP 14 KEPLER PROCHANT(KY) (WAR CHANT x MR. PROSPECTOR x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by marre,trained by bobo (Marre Stables, 19%), Style: E, Odds: 11-1

The Ireland Residency and a ridiculously productive dam bring us this entry.Her last race was great.She put up a 97 speed figure going eight furlongs in her first start as a three-year-old.That race alone makes her a contender here.She's another early runner, but early in her career she showed she could handle pressure.Those are the reasons for hope; here are the reasons to doubt.She lost to both Zoraida and Boiscool in the race before her last. The last couple times she faced early pressure, she was unable to finish in the money.Odds of 11-1 in an 18-horse field means she has a better than average chance to win.Sounds about right.

PP 15 CABER TOSS(KY) (FORESTRY x GONE WEST x ALLEGED) bred and trained by isolde (Chilcoat Stables, 18%) Style: P, Odds: 12-1

Vermont's Pastures of Green residency brings us this filly.Although her dam was more of a turfer, this filly seems happier on the dirt than on the lawn.Her older half-sister, Die Verwandlung, is a stakes-winner, but that too was on dirt.Caber showed a big jump in speed figures last time in her three-year-old debut, coming within a length of winning her first stakes.If she continues that trend and onto the lawn, she can be a factor.

PP 16 RED BUTTERCREAM(IRE) (RED CLUBS x HERBAGER x CREME DELA CREME) bred and trained by sjmeola3 (Sjmeola Racing, 14%), Style: P, Odds: 30-1

The East-West Connection hopes to connect with this longshot.She'll be making her three-year-old debut, her stakes debut, and her first try at a route, hence the long odds.There's no telling how she'll do here.So far, she's picked up three wins in six starts, including her last two against large allowance fields.Second-year sire has an impressive win percentage and can be had for a bargain level price.

PP 17 ETERNITY IN HELL(KY) (EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER) bred and trained by super5 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 14%), Style, E/P, Odds: 9-1

The DelPenn National Residency finds its entry with a far outside post.Two graded wins have made this filly the highest ranked filly in the field.She was a longshot in the Breeders Bowl and did well to finish in the front half of the field.Since then, things have picked up.She beat a very strong field in the DelPenn Handicaps at odds similar to today's.What was most impressive is that she showed for the first time that she didn't need the lead to win.In her last race. however, she failed to close the deal at 4-5 in a four-horse Grade III.That race might be excused because she may not have fully recovered from her DelPenn race.Surrounded by longshots, jockey A Darling should be able to overcome the outside post and set her up behind the early speed.Her name reminds me of a child's birthday party I went to few years ago at a place called Chuck E Cheese.

PP 18 HAACK'S TURFER(KY) (KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by oahaack (Otto Haack (Venezuela), 15%) Style: E/P, Odds: 13-1

The Hispano Parlante residency rounds out the field with this very lightly raced and well-bred filly.A year or two from now she might be the best of this lot.For now it looks like a bit early in her career to take on this level of competition, especially when stuck out in hole 18.As expected, she made a nice improvement last time when she tried her first route in her three-year-old debut.

Summary.It's time to jinx some runners.I'll recommend: Zoraida / Eternity in Hell / Polliachi.Good luck to all.





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