The Equinincs' Citizen Mile is for three-year-old fillies on the British Columbia turf.� Four of the top ten divisional runners are in the field, and while that seems an obvious place to start looking for a winner, the early morning odds make a co-favorite out of one ranked as low as 170th.�
It promises to be a race requiring a very wise ride.� The eighteen filly field contains a lot of early speed and no filly that has won from very far off the lead.� Somebody is going to get squeezed out of a chance at the first turn, and the prize may go to one that can show some patience as the battles up front play out.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 MINESH(KY) (CRYPTOCLEARANCE x MINESHAFT x GIANT'S CAUSEWAY (IRE)) bred and trained by wispa3 (Willow Stables, 11%) Style: E/P, Odds: 8-1
Representing the EAAA Residency, the winner of the Breeders' Bowl Filly Juvenile Turf is an obvious contender.� Besides being undefeated in three straight Graded Stakes races, her speed figures at the distance are compelling.�� Every time she stretched out to a mile, her� figures jumped by about ten points.� She loves the distance and has won the most impressive race there is in the division.� What question could there be?� Well, there are two.� First, she is at the rail and, while quick, does not have the greatest early speed.� She figures to get pinched back.� (That is assuming you believe post position matters here.� Some studies in the BTB suggest they do, and that the rail is not a good place.)� Second, she has been off since the Breeders' Bowl. �That's over three months.� Could she possibly be sharp?�
PP 2 ATLANTICA(IRE) (TEOFILO x BEST OF THE BESTS (IRE) x STORMY ATLANTIC) bred and trained by nijinskaa (Spartan Racing Stables, 9%), Style: E/P, Odds: 32-1
Out of the Great Plains Residency, this one has the dubious honor of having the longest odds in the field.� She has a win at the distance and is stakes placed.� Her dam's wins all came at turf routes, so this seems to be her best distance and surface.� Another good sign is that the barn thought nothing of the expense of shipping her here from England.� Finally, doesn't Kingab have a runner out of Teofilo (or am I simply wrong again)?� That should bring some good Karma.
PP 3 ZORAIDA(KY) (CORINTHIAN x SADLER'S WELLS x NASHUA) bred and trained by har (Rafa Stables, 13%), Style: P, Odds: 9-1
Representing NWRC, this is the winner of Japan's Grade I Juvenile Filly.� In that race at today's distance she beat both Boiscool and Kepler Prochant.� She doesn't need the lead to win, and that is a definite plus in this field.� Sitting off the pace may be the lesson she was taught last time, when she was too prominent early and ended up a well-beaten favorite in an overnight stakes.� If a bettor can find a way to forgive that last race, she is an obvious contender.
PP 4 TRICKY CROSS(IRE) (CAPE CROSS (IRE) x DANSILI (GB) x SIR TRISTRAM(IRE)) bred and trained by glenbuchat �(Glenbuchat Stables, 27%) Style: E, Odds: 10-1
From the Benelux Residency, this lightly raced filly tried her stakes and three-year-old debut last time, and the results were encouraging.� She battled for the lead throughout the race and was coming back at the end.� Throw in the fact that the turf was only good that day and you can make a case that she has a chance here.� It may not be such good news that the filly she couldn't quite catch, Kepler Prochant, is in the field today.� A pace handicapper might like that she may have the best early foot of the inside horses and she could get a rail trip around the first turn.
PP 5 NORTH OF HELL(ENG) (DUBAWI (IRE) x ALLEGED x ROUND TABLE) bred and trained by icbomber11 (The Danby Road Connection, 22%) Style: E, Odds: 12-1
Out of the GR Simsters, this speedster will absolutely be gunning for the early lead.� She made an impressive Graded debut last time, rounding out the hellish exacta with Eternity in Hell in a DelPenn Handicap.� That race really proved she can handle a large field and the class, and it's feasible she could reverse things on the Supers' filly.� That was a very tough field, and she is due to improve both because she is so lightly raced and because this is her first race of the year.�
PP 6 RAVENHILL(IRE) (RAVEN'S PASS x A.P. INDY x NUREYEV) bred and trained by �bluefox (Supertaffy Stables, 11%) Style: E, Odds: 20-1
The Midas entry will be facing 14 more opponents than she has seen in her last couple starts, and will make the leap from allowance company to Graded stakes.� But all is not hopeless.� She showed in a September stakes that she can compete with Zoraida, and she's very lightly raced and is improving rapidly from race to race.� Taffy says she had some success with allowance runners in the last Equinics, and she ignored the counsel of one Midas member with a bad attitude who suggested that Midas not even participate in these Equinics.� It's always a good idea to ignore that idiot.� Best of luck to Supertaffy.
PP 7 WHIPPED(NZ) (ZABEEL(NZ) x WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER) bred by surlyn, trained by snags (Balata Golf Resort, 16%), Style: P, Odds: 24-1
The Hong Kong Racing Cub whips out this entry.� She is a longshot despite her record of four wins in six starts.� Her final race as a two-year-old was pretty quick, although it was in a four horse allowance field.� Continued improvement could get her a piece of the purse.� In her lone start in a Graded stakes, she was a close fifth and has the excuse of an off track. That's encouraging as she tries this leap in class.� An older half-brother out of her dam is a multiple stakes winner on the turf.� In a private interview Balata said to me, "I've looked at the other horses in this race, and they have no chance against mine." Maybe it was, "Oh, 24-1, I don't have a shot."� It was definitely one of those quotes.� My notes are a mess.
PP 8 BOISCOOL(KY) (WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by herbie,� trained by boble14b (Boble Stables, 29%), Style: E/P, Odds: 7-1
The Blazing Saddles' entry was second choice in the Breeders Bowl Filly Juvenile Turf and just missed behind Minesh.� That performance was enough to give her a top ten division ranking and favoritism in this race.� She'll be right up there with all the other early speed in this race, but she has repeatedly shown that she doesn't mind a fight.� She's been the picture of heart and class.� In four of her five wins she's been the victor after race-long battles.� There is some reason to be cautious.� In the hyper-competitive life of eight-furlong racing, no horse can be good in every race, but her last race gives us pause.� She was a well-beaten favorite in the Grade I Juvenile Filly, losing to Zoraida and others.�� That brings her to this race in what might be declining form and a record of no wins in two tries at the distance.� Her connections hope that, instead, she used the last race as a recovery from the demanding Breeders Bowl.� Dam has been an outstanding producer of stakes winners.
PP 9 FINAL CHAPTER(KY) (PULPIT x STORM CAT x SAINT BALLADO) bred and trained by touched (Old Dominion Farms, 33%), Style: E, Odds: 30-1
Anyone associated with Comedy Central must be a little touched.� I admit I did a double take on Grouchy's win rate with this barn, but it is for real - he's had over 400 starts with it.� This Chapter is hard to read.� She's only started three times and only broke her maiden in her last start.� It was her first start on the lawn, and the improvement was huge - she loves the grass.� Now she tries a few new tricks.� It's her first start against winners; her first stakes; her first Graded stakes; her first route; her first race as a three-year-old; her first race away from California; and I think it's her first time with the braids in her mane.� Did I mention Grouchy has won a third of the time with this barn? Go, Comedy Central.
PP 10 IMPOSING JESTER(AUS) (EXCEED AND EXCEL (AUS) x RORY'S JESTER(AUS) x IMPOSING(AUS)) bred and trained by samsunga (Fitzgerald Racing, 6%), Style: P, �Odds: 30-1
The Queensland entry hasn't shown a lot yet, but she's young and certainly eligible to improve.� She's only tried routing once, and that was one of her poorer races.� Her greatest asset is her running style in this race.� She will be one of the few taken back at the beginning of the race.� It will take a lot of backing up of the leaders for her to prevail, but with the furious pace, you know at least many of them will be going backwards at the end.� It's up to her to pick some of them up and try to cash a check.
PP 11 POLLIACHI(JPN) (OPERA HOUSE(GB) x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) bred and trained by dundey (Dundey Acres, 12%), Style: P, Odds: 16-1
Out of the Minnesota Residency, at first she looks like just another longshot - her best speed figure is more than 10 points slower than the favorites, and she hasn't won a stakes, but don't pass over her chances too quickly.� She did finish within a length of the winner in the Grade I High Flyer Stakes in October, and that race was at today's distance.� Her last race, while only an allowance, was a decisive win against a full field, again at eight furlongs.� Best of all, she did it coming from behind.� She will surely fall behind early today.� Let's see how her rally looks against a tougher field.
PP 12 MACHO NATIVE(ENG) (KINGSGATE NATIVE (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x VICE REGENT) bred and trained by sorrento (Universal Stables, 15%), Style: P, Odds: 22-1
The Universal Racing Club Residency has entered a filly with some mysterious breeding.� I can't find a sim-sire named Kingsgate Native.� I suspect some Machiavellian machinations.� In October, Macho finished in the money in a Graded stakes at today's distance.� That gives her four straight in-the-money finishes on the lawn.� She did run her fastest race ever last time, her first as a three-year-old.� She'll be hoping to make a move from mid-pack.
PP 13 LUCKY'S KIMBERLY M(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by naracing (Mr Lucky's, 21%), Style: E, Odds: 7-1
Ohio Thoroughbred Racing Residency brings us a filly whose breeding we can all salivate over.� She's five for seven on the turf and comes off two straight overnight wins, both in times that make her co-favoritism understandable.� In those last two races, she has beaten five other stakes winners, but she has never faced a Graded winner before this race.� Also, this is only her second try at two turns, and her other try was the last time she lost.� She can use the excuse of an off track for that loss and slow (for her) time.� In a race with lots of early speed, she may be the speed of the speed.
PP 14 KEPLER PROCHANT(KY) (WAR CHANT x MR. PROSPECTOR x SEATTLE SLEW) bred by marre,� trained by bobo (Marre Stables, 19%), Style: E, Odds: 11-1
The Ireland Residency and a ridiculously productive dam bring us this entry.� Her last race was great.� She put up a 97 speed figure going eight furlongs in her first start as a three-year-old.� That race alone makes her a contender here.� She's another early runner, but early in her career she showed she could handle pressure.� Those are the reasons for hope; here are the reasons to doubt.� She lost to both Zoraida and Boiscool in the race before her last. The last couple times she faced early pressure, she was unable to finish in the money.� Odds of 11-1 in an 18-horse field means she has a better than average chance to win.� Sounds about right.
PP 15 CABER TOSS(KY) (FORESTRY x GONE WEST x ALLEGED) bred and trained by isolde (Chilcoat Stables, 18%) Style: P, Odds: 12-1
Vermont's Pastures of Green residency brings us this filly.� Although her dam was more of a turfer, this filly seems happier on the dirt than on the lawn.� Her older half-sister, Die Verwandlung, is a stakes-winner, but that too was on dirt.� Caber showed a big jump in speed figures last time in her three-year-old debut, coming within a length of winning her first stakes.� If she continues that trend and onto the lawn, she can be a factor.
PP 16 RED BUTTERCREAM(IRE) (RED CLUBS x HERBAGER x CREME DELA CREME) bred and trained by sjmeola3 (Sjmeola Racing, 14%), Style: P, Odds: 30-1
The East-West Connection hopes to connect with this longshot.� She'll be making her three-year-old debut, her stakes debut, and her first try at a route, hence the long odds.� There's no telling how she'll do here.� So far, she's picked up three wins in six starts, including her last two against large allowance fields.� Second-year sire has an impressive win percentage and can be had for a bargain level price.
PP 17 ETERNITY IN HELL(KY) (EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER) bred and trained by super5 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 14%), Style, E/P, Odds: 9-1
The DelPenn National Residency finds its entry with a far outside post.� Two graded wins have made this filly the highest ranked filly in the field.� She was a longshot in the Breeders Bowl and did well to finish in the front half of the field.� Since then, things have picked up.� She beat a very strong field in the DelPenn Handicaps at odds similar to today's.� What was most impressive is that she showed for the first time that she didn't need the lead to win.� In her last race. however, she failed to close the deal at 4-5 in a four-horse Grade III.� That race might be excused because she may not have fully recovered from her DelPenn race.� Surrounded by longshots, jockey A Darling should be able to overcome the outside post and set her up behind the early speed.� Her name reminds me of a child's birthday party I went to few years ago at a place called Chuck E Cheese.
PP 18 �HAACK'S TURFER(KY) (KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by oahaack (Otto Haack (Venezuela), 15%) Style: E/P, Odds: 13-1
The Hispano Parlante residency rounds out the field with this very lightly raced and well-bred filly.� A year or two from now she might be the best of this lot.� For now it looks like a bit early in her career to take on this level of competition, especially when stuck out in hole 18.� As expected, she made a nice improvement last time when she tried her first route in her three-year-old debut.
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Summary.� It's time to jinx some runners.� I'll recommend: Zoraida / Eternity in Hell / Polliachi.� Good luck to all.
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