Minnesota Nice has hit the Sim, in the form of this year's Minnesota Run, a Grade I, $1,000,000 race for fillies and mares at a mile and a half.� Named by the Minnesota Downs residency, it's the home of older fillies trying their best to become a star on of the Sim's most time-honored traditional afternoons of racing excellence.� Your favorite is The Trident, a six-year-old filly who recently captured a Grade I race on the grass.� She's a heavy price, all things considered, in the Equinics, at 9-2 on the morning-line, based on her recent grass success as well as some strong efforts on last year's handicap trail.� But she's a vulnerable one, as a couple of Eve Harrington-like four-year-old fillies�have some serious potential, and some of the veterans, from varying classes and divisions, have targeted the favored mare with a big red bullseye.
In this race, eighteen horses will enter the starting gate, out of 19 nominees. Regrettably, Alpine Turf Club did not enter the race, thus original nominee Kira's Xanadu is not among the starters. She would have played a decent role in this race, having won a stakes at the distance and her last three in a row, so her presence will be felt, and we hope to see her elsewhere going forward. STATE did not name a nominee to the race, and as a resident there (and as an aside, also a proud resident of NWRC), I can say safely that we're the new kids on the Equinics block, and we're trying to aim for quality more than quantity; you'll be hearing from us next Equinics, though. (The preceding message was presumably endorsed by Mr. Beisbol.)
In the name of complete randomness, I went to a number generator, and created an ultra-random order to determine who gets discussed first, so here we go, very randomly, through the field:
Vermont: Desecration [Giant's Causeway-Sacrilege, by A.P. Indy, trained by slwcityslw for Chilcoat Stables] has won stakes races at this distance in her past, but recent form suggests she's got more of a preference for a mile and a quarter or even a mile and five-sixteenths. She steps way up in class here, and should be leading the second flight of runners while waiting to give her late kick a start. It may not take an outstandingly high speed figure to take this, and she's capable of the low 100s at this distance, so if she can pass a class test again, she could be in the mix.
NWRC: Through The Years [Vindication x Fappiano, trained by seniorbarn for Lilbitfarm Stables] earned her best speed figure at a mile and a half, winning a pair of stakes races at this same time last year, one of those with a 109. She won the Grade II Disco Slayer last out at a mile and three-eighths, coming from well out of it to win while driving. She's passed her class test with that last graded win, but the speed figure needs to improve for her best run here, as a 100 here might not cut it. A wet track would have improved her chances here nicely, but she's certainly competent enough to make a go of it at this level and distance.
BENELUX: Gommorrha [Street Cry x Seattle Slew, trained by ceclaim12 for Royal Belgian Kempen Farm] is a restricted allowance winner for her residency at this distance, and her run was impressive enough to crack the 100-speed figure mark. She's earned better numbers going longer, which is a plus for her, and her pedigree is well suited for these types of marathon races. She's the rare mare (rare horse, really) who sees a mile and a half, and may actually find it too short for her, as her mile and five-eighths form is actually pretty solid---both triple-digit numbers come at that distance. She's another closing type from the rear echelon of runners, but in this rare instance, she might need another furlong, which you don't see that often within the division.
Comedy Central: Hondo [Kendor x Baptism, trained by backagain for Cmd Stables] is a reformed claimer who found signs of life last fall for her third trainer. She won three of four races last fall, and has maintained some of that fall form into 2010, even if her best result was a second last out at a mile and a quarter. The speed figures need work at this level, but the distance shouldn't be terribly hard on her, with a win and a pair of 100 speed figures at a mile and a half. She likes to be at or near the lead in her starts, even opening up by 11 at one start, but there's a lot of pace here, and she doesn't seem to have the most or best tactical speed in the field. She'll play a role in the pace, but whether she can gut one out in her stakes debut depends on her fitness.
EAAA: Rome [Dubawi-Eternal City, by Theatrical, trained by kevoman2 for Kevoman Stables] was built in ten months, from maiden win to stakes win. She's an Equinics champion, winning at 3 at a mile and a quarter, but she's been focusing at the mile and a half distances as of late, winning a Grade III at the distance in October 2008. She's a mighty big closer from off the place, coming from long-distance deficits and coasting late. Her five best speed figures have come at the distance, and that bodes very well for her along with the back class she's earned to date. Recent form at the distance, though, does dampen the enthusiasm, as her only wins in the last few months have come at shorter distances. Is she ready to reload, or has she burned herself by going to her favorite distance off her best game?
OHIO: Heartbreakers [Grand Slam-American Girl, by Danzig, trained by candyman for Zman Stables] is a speedy mare who stretches out from a mile and five-sixteenths here for the very first time. She's got speed to burn, having used controlling speed to win a restricted stakes last July 4, so expect her to try and extend that early turn of foot against some seasoned vets (not horse doctors covered in cumin, but experienced opposition). The pedigree tends to confuse me as to whether it's a mile and a half set of bloodlines, but her speed figures are solid at a mile and a quarter, and her results have been game in recent times. There is a lot of speed to deal with, though, and she hasn't run against graded stakes fillies since she sprinted against three-year-old fillies in the 2008 Equinics. A router stretching out isn't a bad proposition to take, but on the lead in a Grade I adds to the pressure.
DelPenn: Make A Little Love [Red Ransom x Northern Dancer, trained by jmb for Jmb Stables] is in that time of life where she has done a little dancing, and will eventually wind up getting down tonight. Making her 51st start, she's won a few stakes in her time, but at the twelve-furlong distance, she's won one stakes race dating back to March 2008. Strangely, though, she's won two stakes races going a mile and five-eighths. In terms of speed figures, she has seen some brighter days, but her career-best was in her only stakes win at this distance, a 111. Her recent form is decent, having won a race as recently as last October, but as her career starts to wind down, her connections seem to be moving away from the loftier goals in her past performances, with the number of graded outings dwindling. Recent performances are fair, but she does her best running from the back, and there's no telling what she can do on an event day such as this to reinvigorate her back class.
GR Simsters: The Trident [Ghostzapper-Raging River, by Gone West, trained by asoiaf for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] has four out of five dentists in her corner, no matter the background. In this event, being a 9/2 favorite is as good as being odds-on. She's a Grade I winner at a mile and a half, going back to 2007, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a speed figure of 115 at the distance elsewhere in this field. But her recent form, curiously enough, has been stronger on the grass, with a recent Grade I victory in November. That's not to say she's no longer a factor anywhere, as she's still winning Grade I races at a mile and a quarter on dirt, too. As consistent as she is, and as successful as she's been at this distance previously, lately she hasn't been competing at any level going a mile and a half. Her speed figures are still very solid at or beyond a mile and three-eighths, but she hasn't won at this distance since October of 2007. She possesses some strong tactical speed, which should see her in the mix near the front end, but her staying power is being tested here. The recent turf form, though, should make her very fit for the Equinics.
Queensland: Play It Again John [Election Day x Victory Speech, trained by chongtong for Fitzgerald Racing] has recently discovered marathon racing as a way of life. Before last July the furthest she'd ever run on the dirt was a mile and three-sixteenths. Since then, she's won twice while marathoning, at two miles and at a mile and three-quarters, usually rolling from the middle of the pack. The speed figures, though, have been lacking in power, peaking at 96 when second at this distance last summer. She's been racing against some strong horses going longer, so returning to a mile and a half benefits her here, and she did finish fifth in her only graded race last fall. This will be her second race off a six-week vacation, so she likely will make a fair account herself in this spot, though the overall numbers are still missing some oomph.
URC: Fear Me Coming [War Chant x Seattle Slew, trained by pincay for Qwikvett Stables] has been making her bones against grass specialists, winning the Grade I Princess Di last August. She's never been further than a mile and a quarter on dirt, and this is just her eighth dirt start. She was fourth in the Grade III County BB on dirt back in October at nine and a half furlongs, so she has some skills on the surface, and yet the grass course seems to be treating her much better, particularly at middle distances. Her best winning move comes from near the back of the pack, never too far removed from the action, and it does seem to work for her. Yet these long distances haven't shown themselves to be a great boon to her on either surface. The speed figures are adequate for the distance and the surface, but when she returns to the surface she loves at shorter distances, it should be a very productive turf season for this mare.
MINNESOTA DOWNS: War Vixen [War Emblem-Trick Vixen, by Shirley Heights, trained by pazthree for PazJazz Music City Stables] is sent out by the sponsor and namers of this race, and this vixen has been logging the miles over the last sixty starts. She's stakes-placed at the distance going back to 2007, and has always put forth a game effort when she's been racing at this distance, with a string of in-the-money finishes that would make any trainer happy. Unfortunately, her last win was back in November or 2008, and she's never broken the 100 speed-figure barrier, making the prospects in this prestigious Grade I event a little dicier. Still, she's earned her stripes while entering her sixth year of racing, and she makes her 2010 debut here, giving her a degree of freshness that should be a benefit to her fitness level. The most experienced horse in the field, one must always give the grande dame a certain degree of respect.
East-West Connection: S R Wedding [Eviul Minister x Verbatim, trained by ballylinch for The Big Oil Conglomerate [Ft. LordPye]] represents one of the Sim regulars who has been making a lot of noise lately. At twelve starts, this filly is the second-most lightly raced of the bunch, and hopes to make some noise of her own here.� She was eighth two starts back in the Grade I Winterthur Oaks, and came out of that leap in class with a newfound poise, finishing second in an allowance three weeks ago with a 106 speed figure.� That number is by far a career best, the first of what could be many triple-digit speed figures, and it comes from an inexpensive pedigree that seems to be at home in the short range of these marathons.� This race does mark her stakes debut against older horses, though, and while she did beat her elders back in October, it was in an entry-level allowance.� She's 0-for-1 at the distance, but seems to be headed in the right direction in her early days within this division, and is expected to be closing late from mid-pack.� If you're looking for a longshot play, this might be a good one to try.
Great Plains Residency: Nicklaus [Seeking The Gold x Deputy Minister, trained by gcd for Rockriver Stables] has a pedigree not too�unlike the winner of the 2007 Belmont Stakes at this distance, Jazil, but it took about a year and a half to test the pedigree for Sim marathons. It seemed to pay off, however, when the mare began to fire stretching out, winning as far out as a mile and three-eighths.� It's been a rockier road beyond that point, however, as this filly is winless beyond eleven furlongs.� At that distance, this mare might be a solid contender, with speed figures as high as 103 at that distance, and a 107 earned last out at ten and a half furlongs.� But the lack of wins and not enough solid numbers at this twelve-furlong distance do not inspire a great deal of confidence in this spot.� If she can find the right pace to take note of, as she prefers a tactical stalker's role, the pieces might well fall into place here, yet it does seem like the extra furlong is this well-bred mare's biggest hurdle.
Blazing Saddles: Off The Hinges [Giant's Causeway x Seattle Slew, trained by mjk07 for Shamrock Stables] is on a similar plane as the East-West entry: a lightly raced filly, making her twelfth start, and her second graded start, but the first against older fillies.� They even share the trend of starting in the Winterthur Oaks, and a big run in their 2010 debut in allowance company.� The difference is minor: this filly won last out at this distance, though the speed figure of 96 against a small field was just pretty decent.� She is unbeaten at the distance, though, a perfect 3-for-3, and she steps up in class rather steeply.� Her best number to date was a 107 in an allowance win at the distance back in November, winning by more than seven lengths, so there are some big races inside of her.� The lack of experience and the step into graded racing against older is intimidating, but they have to start somewhere, so why not in a big race during an important Sim event?� She'll likely be moving in the middle of the race, trying to make a big sweeping run from the pack to get her to the front, but the lack of experience against seasoned company more experienced at such runs might prove a little difficult to overcome.� Nevertheless, she's a well-bred youngster who might also be primed for a solid career within this division.
MIDAS: Learning Indy [Lear Fan-A.P.'s Girl, by A.P. Indy, trained by shagadel4 for Shagadelic Farms] just crossed the $300K mark in career earnings, a watershed moment for this wily vet's career.� Making her 56th start here, this mare has had a solid career at allowance level, carving out a niche in these marathon races.� She has only a modest history at stakes level, but her consistency (especially in recent times) has made her a true workmanlike professional in the Sim.� She has won five of her last seven starts, including her last two starts, both at this distance.� What's fascinating is that her speed figures now, as she continues through the second half of her racing career, are the best she's ever seen, peaking with a 103 last September.� Her last two numbers both broke 100, and that's a good achievement to have this late in her career.� She'll be on the lead, having opened up by more than ten lengths last out en route to an allowance win, and if she can get the lead outright and go out winging, she could have a decent shot to hang tough late for at least a share.� No matter what, this is a tough filly.
IRELAND: Go Ireland [Refuse To Bend-Frank's Footballs, by Mr. Prospector, trained by sabbath5 for Sabbath Stables] has won more than half her starts, and when you consider that she's making her 42nd start here, that's definitely a great achievement.� The winner of two graded races at the distance, she possesses some sharp back class, but her recent experience has been reserved for listed stakes, of which she won one last out at a mile and a quarter.� Her speed figures winning the graded races have been solid numbers, but her better figures seem to have come in more recent times, and currently they're steady in the mid-to-upper 100s, although that owes to the fact she's been running at more classic distances than marathons.� Hitting a 109 in a mile and three-eighths allowance has been her best recent performances, so she's certainly still capable of shining at the right time and distance.� But even with back class, she may need some kind of good run going longer once again.� She also likes to head to the front and dictate the pace terms, so expect some possible fireworks on the lead while things get sorted out.
Sim Hispano: Kuba [Kingmambo-Bee The One, by Seattle Slew, trained by seinfeld3 for Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation]�is actually pretty close to having won half her races, currently 16-for-34.� She's a three-time stakes winner at this distance, though the only time she tried a graded stakes at a mile and a half, she found herself last and badly beaten.� She usually closes from mid-pack, though her tactics are versatile depending on field size and quality, though one imagines here she would probably sit near the back of the field and wait.� The distance should appeal to her, and one imagines that it's very possible she will appreciate some class and distance here, but her speed figures are a little light in her recent form, with her average in the last three tries at twelve furlongs falling just shy of 100.� Capable as she is, her past performances suggest that eleven furlongs might be more up her alley.
Hong Kong Racing Club: Bad Stella [Dubawi-Cincinnati Deputy, by Seattle Slew, trained by singleall�for Worldwide] makes her second start for brand new connections, and what a place to be for that.� Previously, she was a talented long-distance specialist who had a pair of marathon stakes wins, including one at the distance.� Her speed figures are good at the distance, with the best being a 108 back in July 2008, but her abilities versus graded foes is only fair, the best finish there being a third in a two-mile Grade III marathon almost two years ago.� Her new-barn debut netted a 99 in a conditional allowance almost two months ago, so expecting her to spread her wings at a more favorable distance off an extended break is a little in doubt.� She's expected to be in stalking position, sitting just off the pace, if past form holds, but she's a year removed from her best speed figure of 109, back in January of 2009, at the shorter mile and three-sixteenths distance, so she needs a couple of breaks to get the job done here.
Good luck to all in this year's Equinics extravaganza.
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