What a pleasure to be here today at the 2010 Equinics. This is my first trip to this great day on the sim calendar. Todays race has been named in honour of player AFC, who is very worthy of this honour.
This race (South Carolina Stomp) is for 3 year old fillies and mares over 6 furlongs on the fast dirt at the wonderful Vermont track
I have looked at the past 2 runnings of this 3 year old dirt sprint for fillies and mares at the Equinics.
In the summer of 2008; MINSTER OF HUMOR(KY) won this race for trainer bandinni with an SP#109. She went onto to have another 7 starts after this big win before being retired. Race record was 19 races for 9 wins (6 stake wins including 4 graded wins) with $1,309,070 in prize money. Her first offspring DEFENCE REST(KY) has so far had 8 starts for 1 win.
In the winter of 2006; KEPLER GNAGET won this race for trainer marianus with an SP#100. She retired with a race record of 67 races for 19 wins (6 stake wins including 1 graded win) with $1,492,667 in prize money. Her first two offspring; KEPLER RASOR(KY) and KEPLER RAZOR(KY) are both still active and are race winners.
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Let's assess the form of today's 18 runners:
PP#1 NAILED AT THE GUN(KY) (KINGMAMBO x A.P. INDY x SUMMER SQUALL) trained by gradeone with jockey A Rolling on board. Odds: 7/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 6. Career earnings: $293,180.
Residency: Del Penn
Having her 10th start today her race record is 9 starts for 4-0-2. Comes from the highly productive game dam; FLY LIKE THE WIND who from her 7 offspring that has raced; 2 have won at grade level, 4 others have won at stakes level and the remaining runner was stakes placed.
Is the highest ranked filly in the field today and is the pre post favourite in betting for the race. Has won at grade II level and been placed at grade I. Is having her second start as a 3 year old, she won her last start The Conga Line Special Stakes with her highest SP#96 over 7 furlongs on the dirt.
Usually races near the lead and is the horse to beat in this big race.
PP#2 THE MED ACADEMY(ENG) (MEDICEAN (GB) x GRAND SLAM x ROYAL ACADEMY) trained by tyedye with jockey F Shaw on board. Odds: 15/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 70. Career earnings: $88,530.
Residency: East-West Connection.
Filly with race record of 7 starts for 3-2-0. Started her career on the turf and has improved since moving to the dirt. Is the first offspring of stakes winning mare THE OIL ACADEMY(KY).
Is having her 3rd start as a 3 year old in today��s race. Recorded her fastest SP#85 when beaten by a nose in The Speedometer (KY) Challenge in her previous start.
Appears to have best results when leading in her races. Improving with every start and will need to improve again today to be in the places but is capable. Is from large well respected stable; I and others will be watching the on course betting closely to see if the plunge is on.
PP#3 HARD TO SPLIT(KY) (HARD SPUN x UNBRIDLED'S SONG x GONE WEST) trained by rubiano07 with jockey W Baumann on board. Odds: 20/1. Dirt sprint ranking: N/A. Career earnings: $11,716.
Residency: Midas
Must admit I love the name being from the game dam: THE DIVORCE. Lightly race filly with 3 starts for record of 1-0-2.
Has a highest SP#83 over 6.5 furlongs on the dirt. Has never raced at stakes level previously and has only won a maiden so far in her short career.
From watching her previous starts she usually comes storming home after being near the rear of the field in the early stages of her races.
Is well bred filly but might find this race just too tough this early in her career.
PP#4 REWA DREAMIN(KY) (WOKE UP DREAMIN x KEMPINSKY x PETIONVILLE) trained by mooloolaba with jockey Y Waymer on board. Odds: 18/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 77. Career earnings: $199,145.
Residency: Queensland
I am a resident of Queensland and would love to see this horse win because of that. This filly has had 7 starts; with record of 5-1-1.
One of the advantages of writing about races is that you come across sires you have never heard of. I have no idea about WOKE UP DREAMIN who in real life had 16 starts for 6-1-3 including 2 grade II wins. This is by far his best horse in the sim.
This filly has won a good amount of prize money mostly be the way of owner restricted stakes races. Has a highest SP#86 on the dirt which has been recorded twice; once at 7 furlongs and the other at 6.5 furlongs.
This is her first start at 3 and is against very tough opposition. She will need to improve her speed to be in the places today. As much as I want her to win my money will be on others.
PP#5 EROEH(ENG) (PIVOTAL(GB) x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT) trained by salamander with jockey D Givins on board. Odds: 10/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 37. Career earnings: $60,360.
Residency: GR Simsters
Lightly raced filly. Has 2 wins and 1 2nd from 3 starts. Last start was 2nd at Grade II level and run a highest SP# 90 in the Yanta Snez Stakes for 3 year olds over 7 furlongs. Is the second offspring of Graded winning game dam: RAKHARO.
Another from a strong stable that is extremely well bred. From her limited previous runs the horse usually races about mid field before finishing strongly. I really like her last start and I think she will improve on that run. To me she looks the likely winner.
PP#6 STREET CHAMP(KY) (STREET BOSS x MEDAGLIA D'ORO x MR. PROSPECTOR) trained by inthamoney with jockey M Murano on board. Odds: 23/1. Dirt sprint ranking: N/A. Career earnings: $5,684.
Residency: Honk Kong Racing
This filly has had 2 previous runs for a record of 0-0-1. Is the offspring of he-mare IL PROSPETTO(KY) who won at grade III sprint level.
Street Champ is still a maiden and both runs have recorded an SP# 75. Is having her first start as a 3 year old and is likely to improve. Is another from a large stable but I feel this race is beyond her at this early stage of her career.
PP#7 BOSONGABOUTSEATTLE(KY) (UNBRIDLED'S SONG x SEATTLE SLEW x NORTHERN DANCER) trained by boble14 with jockey B F Abman on board. Odds: 14/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 18. Career earnings: $186,390.
Residency: Blazing Saddles
It is very hard to fault the race record of this filly. 6 races as a 2 year old for 5 wins and 1 second. Has a highest SP#86 over 6 furlongs when she won the grade III Buckeye Debutante. Her last two starts have both been stakes wins. Breeding wise this scratch bred horse was bred to be a champion and her early performances indicate that she will be.
Today is her first start as a 3 year old and I expect her to perform extremely well and improve her highest SP#. In watching her past races she seems comfortable both at the front and rear of the field. I have always liked grey horses and I am tipping this gray mare to be near the front of the pack at the winning post.
PP#8 PINER FORTY NINER(AR) (PINE BLUFF x AWESOME AGAIN x FORTY NINER) trained by cmd4 with jockey V Jennings on board. Odds: 31/1. Dirt sprint ranking: N/A Career earnings: $17,830.
Residency: Comedy Central
Filly having her 6th career start in today��s race, record from previous 5 starts is 1-0-0. Scratch bred filly who started racing over longer distances and put up her best ever SP#80 when having her shortest ever race over 7 furlongs last start (first as a 3 year old).
Are the second longest odds to win in pre race betting. Is racing against much tougher opposition than her previous starts and unless she improves immensely this start I much prefer other horses today.
PP#9 AYANA(KY) (JOHANNESBURG x FORTY NINER x DEPUTY MINISTER) trained by coolerk with jockey J White on board. Odds: 10/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 77. Career earnings: $98,250.
Residency: EAAA
From her previous 4 starts; has a record of 3-1-0. Is from the game dam; FRIEND DAISY which has produced a graded winner and two stakes winners from her 5 offspring to have raced. I noticed this mare may be available for open breeding at the end of the year, I must remember this ��
Her last start, first as a 3 year old saw her record her fastest SP#89 over 6.5 furlongs in winning The SKINNY CAT Special Stakes race. It was her only start as a 3 year old.
Watching her races I noticed she runs near the front of the field. There is a lot of front runners in this field. I expect her to be near the front of the field at the finish.
PP#10 LUCKY'S JOYCE(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x WITH APPROVAL x KRIS(GB) trained by ohioracing with jockey V Gardner on board. Odds: 8/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 25. Career earnings: $149,690.
Residency: Ohio
Is the pre post equal second favourite for this race today. Is the off spring of Grade I winning he-mare LUCKY'S MASH(ENG).
Has 8 previous starts for racing record of 4-1-1. Started her career with 4 sprint races for 3 wins including the grade III The Schoolerville. Last 4 starts have all been at routes over 8.5 furlongs for 1 win and 1 third (in Grade I Walnut Tree Stakes).
I think the shorter distances are what she is best suited to but she is against a strong field today. Her highest SP#91 was over 8.5 furlongs. Watching her previous races she races from the rear of the field. Has the speed and will be very hard to beat.
PP#11 CK MINE THE SKY(KY) (SKY MESA x MINING x APTITUDE) trained by bhima3 with jockey K Proehl on board. Odds: 11/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 20. Career earnings: $229,065.
Residency: Minnesota Downs
8 race starts has resulted in a 3-1-0 race record for this filly. Another that has yet to have a start as a 3 year old. She is the first offspring of grade F mare MINING SITE(JPN).
This filly is a graded winner after she won the grade II Vermont BB Juvenile Filly at this track. In her two runs at graded level after this win she was unplaced. Her highest SP#89 was recorded last start over 7.5 furlongs in an allowance win.
Is steeping up in class from last race win but should not be overwhelmed by the occasion. Seems to race well at the front of the field. The bookmarkers have kept her safe and she has every chance to be in the money today.
PP#12 NETTIE(KY) (VAN NISTELROOY x OUT OF PLACE x MISWAKI) trained by xxxstable with jockey P Wright on board. Odds: 14/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 10. Career earnings: $239,345.
Residency: NWRC
Is having her 8th start today, her record so far is 7 starts for 3-3-0. Is a multiple grade winner having won both at grade II and grade III level.
Last start in her first 3 year old appearance she won the grade II Yanta Snez Stakes and recorded her highest SP#94 in this win over 7 furlongs. Is the only graded winner from the 7 offspring that game dam PREGANT FAX has sent to the track.
Last start shows that she is right in this race and with her dirt speed ranking she must be considered when placing your bets.
PP#13 QWIK N SHILOH(KY) (MIDNIGHT LUTE x SAUCE BOAT x GREEN DANCER) trained by qwikvett1 with jockey B Gulch on board. Odds: 14/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 150. Career earnings: $127,520.
Residency: URC
Having first start as a 3 year old. Here 2 year old career was 6 starts for 4-1-0. Won URC BIRTHDAY BASH The run for one Restricted stakes last start over 8 furlongs recording her highest SP#87 in the process.
Her sire MIDNIGHT LUTE was a great sprinter in real life becoming the first horse to record repeat wins in the Breeders Cup Sprint. I have a feeling that this filly may be better over 8-10 furlongs than the sprints.
If she can improve her sprint SP# she has a chance. In such a strong field whilst she may be capable she won��t have my money today.
PP#14 FORESTINI(KY) (FORESTRY x SEEKING THE GOLD x A.P. INDY) trained by seanbrow2 with jockey Q Simien on board. Odds: 13/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 62. Career earnings: $112,140.
Residency: Benelux
This filly racing record is 8 starts for 4-2-0. She is yet to win at stakes or graded level. Is the 3rd offspring to run from dam HASINI HOLLANDIA, all 3 have at least been stakes placed.
Last start in her 3 year old debut she won an open allowance over 7 furlongs and recorded her highest SP#89. Studying her races she is definitely improving all the time but can she improve enough today to beat a very strong field?
PP#15 TORRONOR(BRZ) (TORRENTIAL x HIGHEST HONOR(FR) x SIR IVOR) trained by daniel2 with jockey M Henson on board. Odds: 37/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 143. Career earnings: $77,378.
Residency: Ireland
This filly is the outsider in pre race betting. Race record is 8 starts for 4-0-3. She is yet to race above allowance level. Recorded her highest SP#84 in allowance win over 6 furlongs in October. In only start as a 3 year old she came 3rd last start in allowance company.
You learn something new every day. When I saw this horse was from Brazil, I must admit I didn��t even know that they have horse racing in that beautiful counrty. After some research it appears that they have about 4 main race tracks. TORRENTIAL in real life had a record of 8 starts for 3-2-0. He never won any major races and since retiring to stud has not set the world on fire. In the sim over the last 5 years has produced 51 runners for 27 winners.
I think the bookmarkers have her outsider for a reason. I just can��t see her winning this race with the field assembled today.
PP#16 WICKED DANCE(KY) (THEATRICAL(IRE) x UNBRIDLED'S SONG x DANEHILL) trained by chuck with jockey T Bates on board. Odds: 14/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 728. Career earnings: $30,290.
Residency: Great Plains Residency
Lightly race filly whose 3 starts have yielded record of 1-2-0. I love the breeding of this filly with the strong Northern Dancer influence in both the sire and DD sire line.
Last start she recorded her highest SP#92 over 8.5 furlongs for a second placing in 3 year old filly allowance race. Having such few starts I watched her races closely on the video and whilst I am no expert I really think today��s race is too short for her. She has a lot of ability and is one filly that I look forward to following her career, maybe even an major oaks win is possible later in the year.
PP#17 BELTANE(KY) (ARCH x TALE OF THE CAT x MINING) trained by sonsierra with jockey P Haynes. Odds: 15/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 119. Career earnings: $44,014.
Residency: Sim Hispano
Has a career record of 7 starts for 2-3-1. Another making her 3 year old debut today. Is the offspring of grade F he-mare LATRE(KY)
Yet to win at stakes level her last 3 starts for this filly have been at stakes level and has resulted in 2 second placings. Her highest SP#89 was recorded over 7.5furlongs.
Another that is steeping up in class in this race. Will need to run the race of her life to win today. Has the speed and after watching her races she should be flying home from about mid field. Is definitely amongst the chances today,
PP#18 BEACON LIGHT(KY) (ORIENTATE x GRAND SLAM x VICE REGENT)) trained by icechaser with jockey N Lawton on board. Odds:8/1. Dirt sprint ranking: 51. Career earnings: $164,845.
Residency: Vermont
Has been placed in all 7 of her previous starts with record of 5-1-1. Is the offspring of grade C stakes winning he-mare TURKEY DAY.
Based on her highest SP#94 over 7 furlongs she should be right in the mix in this race. This is her second 3 year old start, she placed 3rd in The SKINNY CAT Special Stakes for 3 year old fillies behind another of today's runners in AYANA.
Another who leads from the front, this race is full of them. Is equal second favourite and deservedly so. Another that is hard to beat.
TIPS
This race is hard to judge, a very strong case can be made for about 5-10 runners in this strong field. All the very best to all the connections of all the runners in the Equinics 2010 and to all the residencies. This is a great day to be involved in.
Onto the tips, and these are more hopeful guesses in this very even race:
1. EROEH(ENG)
2 NAILED AT THE GUN(KY)
3 NETTIE(KY)
4 BEACON LIGHT(KY)
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