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THE MANY THANKS FROM A GRATEFUL ALLY

�3Yo COLTS 8f DIRT

Welcome to the first Equinics race of the day in Vermont, the Many Thanks From A Grateful Ally, named by longtime Equinics and SIM legend Kingab in recognition of the long history of help and support between the US and Canadian armed forces.

The race itself is for three year old colts over 8f on the dirt course. Most of these have only a few runs and there will be a lot of improvers in the field so a �shock� result really won't be much of a shock!!

The Oaths having been taken and the spirit of sportsmanship and comradeship rekindled it's time to let battle commence- lets take a look at the runners then-

From the home residency of VERMONT comes-

CURLING(KY) (CURLIN X STORM CAT X HOUSEBUSTER)

Trained by SNOWCLAN this son of Curlin has been pretty impressive so far in winning half of his eight races to date. He started off with a good 72 sp in his first run when winning an MSW over 5f having led from the off. He followed this with two rather disappointing runs at 6f finishing fourth then third but only improving his sp by eight points. Better was to come though as he took a huge rise in class to contest the Grade II Midsoil Stakes, again over 6f and came away with a 2 length victory and an 85 sp. He then tackled another Grade II in the Upper New York Special and ran second with an 88 sp having led most of the way over the 6.5f. Stepped up to a Grade I next time he again led from the off and held on over the same trip to win by a nose. This set him up for a crack at the big one- the Breeders Bowl Juvenile and not surprisingly he went off in front over 8f and galloped his way into glory to hold on by half a length. With a 100sp he looked like a star but his final two year old run was another let down. Again over 8.5f he went off like a train in the Movieland Futurity Grade I but this time he could not hold on and finished a poor fifth with a 96sp.

You will see the pattern here yourself, he's led in every race but one but ties up at the finish. He clearly has a ton of early speed but is also hit with the curse of the Breeders Bowls Juvenile winners- namely have become a train wreck thereafter. There is some stamina in his pedigree but there is also far more speed and that seems to be to the fore. Expect him to lead but then comes the question- can he hold on? Although he has won over 8.5f, he's going to be facing a lot of maturing horses with a lot of finishing speed and he will find it tough to last out. I don't think he will and have him in fourth or fifth. Hopefully I'm wrong as he clearly has heart and such horses are always to be applauded.

From URC comes-

EL ROBERTO(KY) (EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO x NEVER BEND)

Trained by OUTINFRONT this one has already had a lot of runs (eleven), starting with two on the Turf at 5.5f and 6f in which he finished midfield. He then tried the Dirt over 6f twice, winning the second to break his maiden with a 78sp. He immediately jumped up to Grade I company in the Horsehead Juvenile showing a bit of early speed before fading into eighth place. Stepped up again in trip nest time over 8f he again ran poorly in the Mountain Reef stakes finishing seventh. An allowance run over the same trip followed and he managed fourth this time with a 79sp. Back up in grade and back on turf next time in the Major Tom Grade III he bombed again in finishing eighth. Dropping back to his correct grade the nest twice he won his next two allowance races over 8f on the Dirt with a 91sp in the second and followed that with a second but a disappointing 84sp in a restricted stakes for his final two year old run.

The first thing that jumps out at you with this one is the number of runs- eleven already looks about four too many. The next thing is that all his best runs have come in allowance company. The third is his breeding. He's bred to be a 10-12f horse and his last few runs only backed that up. There will be far too much speed here for him to cope with and I'm afraid I can only see him near the back of the field.

The runner from DEL PENN is next-

INAUGURATION(KY) (MR GREELY x WILD AGAIN x BOLD RULER)

WORLDWIDE's runner has had nine runs so far and has come out in top in five of them. He broke his maiden second time out and then went straight to Grade II company in the Vermont BB and could only manage seventh, although even then 6f looked too short. Next time up he was raised in distance to 8f in a stakes race and duly won cosily posting an 89sp. This was the first of four wins in a row all over 8f on the dirt (the only surface he's raced on so far). He followed the stakes win with victory in the Grade III Pea Patch with a 93sp and another stakes win with a 94sp. His final win was in the Grade I Sparkling Wine with a comfortable victory and a 95sp. The lack of improvement in his sp figures at this point may have given a clue as to what was to follow as he bombed in his final two Grade I starts as a two year old finishing seventh and ninth. In both starts he seemed to be crying out for further and I would assume that will still be the case so he may not be quick enough here.

His record alone means he must be respected but I think this trip is now too short and expect him to finish fourth or fifth although he will be closing at the line.

The GR SIMSTERS runner is next up-

THE BEGGAR KING(KY) (TIZNOW x DANZIG x MR PROSPECTOR)

KHALASAR's runner has three wind from his seven runs, getting off the mark at the second time of asking with a 74sp in a 6f MSW. There followed two allowance runs, with the second over 8f producing a win and an 84sp. He then jumped straight to Grade I level in the Paramus Mile and just won by less than a length in a 91sp. That was his last win to date as his next two Grade I wins resulted in a sixth and a second place finish. In both runs he finished fast and the last produced a 100sp.

Here is another runner for whom this trip might now be too short. The manner of his last two runs suggested he needs further but that huge 100sp in his last run still gets your attention. He clearly has a ton of finishing speed but he may be too far back to make best use of it. For me I see a top three but I remain unconvinced about the win.

The QUEENSLAND runner is next-

KHANCOBAN(KY) (AFTER MARKET x SLEWPY x CREPELLO(GB))

MONARO's runner has also run seven races, again with four wins but none of those have been above stakes level. He won second time up in a 6.5f MSW with a good 81sp but hen failed to hold on when stepped up to 7f in an allowance next time. He did just hold on when again tried in a 7f allowance but his sp dropped to 80 and dropped again to 75 when only fifth in another 7f allowance. He was then stepped up to stakes level for his final two runs but crucially both were down in trip to 6f and 6.5f. His sp's improved to 88 and 86 respectively but again notice the drop when upped in trip.

He is taking a big hike in class today and a big hike in trip. His record and his breeding (by a Storm Cat sire) suggests lots of speed and although he may lead early today he will not see out the 8f (at least not at this level). For that reason I fear he may struggle and expect him to finish nearer the back.

Next for SIM HISPANO is-

CHICUCO(AUS) (MORE THAN READY x A.P.INDY x EL GRAN SENOR)

Trained by ARAMEO his colt has had nine runs so far, winning three with four seconds. He won his first two over 5f on dirt and ran a 71so to take the second, an allowance. He followed this with two seconds, including a good 84sp in a stakes over 6.5f. His worst runs to date followed when dropped back to 6f in a stakes and changed to Turf over 7f in an allowance. Stepped up in trip to 8f in an allowance he then ran second again but with a 92sp. He was tried in Grade III company over 8.5f and ran a good third with a 94sp in his last two year old start. He has already ran once as a three year old winning a stakes comfortably over 8f in a good 100sp.

Not sure what to make of him- his two year old runs suggested to me that 9-10f would be ideal but he has already won this year over 8f. That said he only just got up so could be I'm correct about the trip. He looks a solid graded horse in the making but because of the doubt about the trip I think he's looking at a top five rather than the win.

COMEDY CENTRAL is up next with-

SPEEDOS AND GUIDOS(KY) (UNBRIDLED'S SONG x AWESOME AGAIN x GULCH)

TGERK2's runner has only had three runs but has won them all an been progressive in doing so. First up he just held on over 7f on the dirt with an 80sp and followed that with a much more impressive allowance win over 8f and an 89sp. For his last two year old run he ran an 88sp to take a stakes by two lengths although he was seven clear at the quarter pole.

This has to be the most interesting runner here, bags of early speed but on pedigree and on running 8-9f should be his trip. He is still raw and hasn't tried Graded company yet but he should have improved a fair bit from his last run. He will have to run a 105 to win here and that's a 16 point hike from his best but he looks capable so I expect a big run here and a top three finish.

Now we have the MIDAS runner-

THE SOPRANOS(KY) (SPEIGHTSTOWN x VINDICATION x DEPUTY MINISTER)

Six runs so far for CLK2000's runner but only one win, first time up over 5f in an MSW with a 68sp. He then tried Graded company and bombed but ran much better in his next two in allowance company over 7f and 8f. He then tried Graded company again in the Grade II Club Stakes and was closing like a train when finishing fifth over 8.5f. He ran a 91 then but in his only three year old start to date over 8f he ran a stinker in the Grade III Legoland with a 78sp and last place.

His last two year old run suggests he wants to go much further and he looks a 10-12f horse. That run this year backs that up as he ran no sort of race over todays trip. Another 78 will see him last again and I can see no reason why he should improve over the same trip.

Next up it's the NWRC with-

PINSTRIPE POWER(AUS) (TALE OF THE CAT x GHOSTZAPPER x ARAZI)

PINSTRIPE's colt has been one of the busiest with nine runs which have given up two wins in an MSW and an allowance over 8f and 8.5f. That last run was his best with an 88sp and a two length win (although he has ran an 89 when second). Nine runs as a two year old without trying stakes level is a lot and I'm also not sure about the trip. Although he improved for the step up to 8f he has only just been holding on or getting caught on the line which suggests a drop in trip is in order. After so many runs there won't be much improvement left and I can't see anything better than midfield and he may have to beat his best by 10 points to get there.

BLAZING SADDLES are next in line with-

MAKING BANK(KY) (STREET SENSE x FORTY NINER x DEPUTY MINISTER)

Seven runs so far for Approver's runner with only one win to date in an MSW over 8f with an 86sp. He took four runs to get that but then clearly improved for the step up in trip running second in two Grade I's, the Sparkling Wine and the Breeders Bowl, posting a 100sp in the latter over 8.5f. He was closing again at the end of his next run, again over 8.5f but could only finish seventh with a 93sp.

Clearly he wants much further than a mile and although that 100sp is eye-catching I suspect he will again be closing late but will not catch the leaders. Stepped up to 9.5-10f it would be a different story though. Should still get a top five but that's about it.

Next up come EAAA with-

SENSEMILLA(KY) (A.P.INDY x AWESOME AGAIN x DANEHILL)

SUPAPOGS8 sends this seven time starter to post with victory in four of his runs to date. He broke his maiden on his second start with a good 84sp over 7.5f but when dropped to 7f in stakes company next time he bombed with only a 74sp. He then won two allowances in a row at 8f with decent 82 and 84sp's. He tried the same trip and grade again coming second with a 94sp closing fast at the end. He has stayed at 8f for his first three year old start winning a stakes with a 96sp, going away at the end.

I get the impression that he needs further now and while he can win at 8f at stakes level he will have too much to do in this field. That said he still looks good enough for a top five but he will need to improve his sp by 10 points to win.

From OHIO comes-

HAY HOOF HEARTED(KY) (FLOWER ALLEY x UNBRIDLED'S SONG x BANKER'S GOLD)

The runner from KIDDMAN only has four runs to date but has won two of them, winning an MSW first time up over 5.5f with a 76sp. He was sent straight to the Grade I Dell Computer Futurity over 7f and could only manage seventh with an 82sp. Back to allowance level over 5.5f next time he ran better, getting third without threatening to win. His last two year old win over 9f again at allowance level brought a win with an 88sp and he was going away at the finish.

On breeding and looking at his last two runs this trip should suit but my big concern is whether he can run at this level. He will need to improve his sp by 18 points and that looks to big an ask. However with a 10-12 point improvement he could at least finish in the top half of the field.

Now for IRELAND's runner-

HEART OF SWEDEN(SWE) (HEART OF OAK x GALILEO x BROAD BRUSH)

DANSCAND send out this three time winner who has had six runs to date. His first four runs and two of his wins were gained on turf with a 7f MSW win and a 6.5f allowance win (with a 90sp). He then tried two more allowances both over 7.5f with one on turf and one on dirt, winning the last with an 83sp. He has already run this year, posting an 80sp over 8.5f in another allowance in taking second.

He was actually getting further behind the winner on that last run despite getting second and looked better on turf, perhaps over todays trip. He will have to find 20 points improvement just to reach the top three based on his last run and that looks beyond him, at least on dirt. Looks as though he will be nearer the back than the front.

EAST-WEST CONNECTION send out the next runner-

PHILLY PARK(ENG) (MEDICEAN(GB) x SMARTY JONES x NORTHERN DANCER)

From the BOOBERRY stables this guy has only had four runs but never finished outside the top two. Both his wins have come on turf, an MSW over 6f and an allowance over 7f, the latter producing an 87sp. However probably his better runs have been the two second places on dirt over 6f and 8f both at allowance level. In his last 8f run he posted a 98sp and just failed to hold on despite leading most of the way.

That last run suggests this could be his trip now he's stronger at three and he should still possess plenty of speed. A lively outsider who although upped in grade only has to find 5-6 points improvement to reach the top three. That looks a real possibility to me and he looks a real lively outsider.

STATE send out the next runner-

IOSKEHA(MD) (ST AVERIL x TOUCH GOLD x CONQUISTADOR CIELO)

This one is trained by NUREYEV and has run five times to date. He won his first three starts, in MSW, allowance and stakes level over 6.5f, 7f and 8f with a top sp of 99 in that last win. He then tried the Grade II Club Stakes and ran a good fourth over 8.5f closing strongly at the finish. His next start as a three year old over 8f yielded a similar run, a fast finishing fourth at stakes level.

The strong suggestion is that although he looks a good graded runner it won't be at this trip. He looks as though he needs at least 10f and maybe even 12f these days. He should give his running today and will be finishing like a train but with so much speed here he'll struggle to get past fifth or sixth. Stepped up in trip will be a different story and look for him later in the year at 10f.

BENELUX send out their runner next-

WOETTE'S POTT(AUS) (DEHERE x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x DANZIG)

Trained by KATINKA this guy has two wins from his six runs to date- his first run over 5f and his last over 8f in a stakes (with a 98sp). He looked to be needing this trip in his last three runs, including a second in the Grade III Nashua Special with a 100sp.

He clearly can run at this level and on breeding this should be his trip. Te 100so looks good and the last run was a comfortable win. I expect a good run and he's another who should at least reach the top five.

MINNESOTA DOWNS send out the next runner-

BIOCHEMISTRY(LA) (BRAHMS x STORM CAT x MR.PROSPECTOR)

The runner sent out by DUNDEY5 has already had ten runs which is quite a lot for a three year old at this stage but he has won seven of those starts. He won his MSW at the second time of asking over 5f but then disappointed with a fifth place in an allowance next time up. He then tried a stakes race at the same trip and won with a 77sp. He then tried graded company at the same trip in the Grade III Manor Of Bashford finishing fifth with an 80sp. Back in allowance company and up to 6.5f next time he won, posting an 87sp. Up to stakes level but down in trip to 6f he then won again with an 89sp. That was followed by third place in the Grade I North Wildwood over 7f. Stepped up in trip again he then tried 7.5f in a stakes and won with a 92sp. Surprisingly he was then dropped in trip to 6f for another stakes and won again with a 95sp. His final start brought his best run to date upped to 8f in the Grade III Legoland as a three year old, winning with a 102sp.

He's clearly got plenty of speed and won a Grade III cosily over this trip last time out, posting that very good sp. He only needs to find three or four points of improvement here and looks a likely winner to me. He should also stay 9f and be a player in the big races to come this year.

The last one out from the ALPINE TURF CLUB is-

DISTORTED WINTER(SAF) (WESTERN WINTER x DISTORTED HUMOR x UNBRIDLED'S SONG)

SAFIMPORT's runner has five runs so far with two wins. Tried first on turf he put up a 77sp in coming fourth over 7f. Then tried on dirt he won an MSW with a 70sp over the same trip. Stepped up to allowance level he won again over 8f on dirt with an 85sp and was going away at the end. Another allowance over the same trip followed but he could only manage fourth with a 76. He has run this year posting an 80 in a 9f dirt allowance with a fifth placed finish,

He seemed to flatten out pretty quickly after two promising runs but perhaps the key was that first run. A full 7 points better on turf first time out he is screaming to be returned to that surface, probably at todays trip of 8f. I can't see a 20 point improvement coming today on dirt which means he will finish nearer last than first but I would look out for him on turf next time out. He could be a turf monster.

In conclusion this is a tricky race to call with such a varied mix of runners and experience. However it looks like being a great race and a marker for bigger races later in the year and I'm siding with BIOCHEMISTRY.

Good luck to all the runners and all the Residencies, LET THE GAMES BEGIN !!