Welcome to the Beijing City Lockup, racing fans, where your humble WV reporter will have to report on the Equinics from behind bars.
Security is tight here in China, a fact which I may have considered before departing the Huntington airport. I might have known they would check my pockets when we landed here in Beijing.
Though witnessing the race in person may be impossible, and leaving the country after the race is in doubt, the Chinese authorities for some unknown reason have left me with my racing form and laptop. Perhaps they are monitoring me in order to gain some American secrets.
All their spying will earn them is a bit of insight into Saturday's St. Jude Equinics Grade I for 3yo colts going 9.5 furlongs on the turf.
As in many of these Equinics races, the GR Simsters have the top qualifier. It's HOARFROST HILL for Given, who goes to post as the 8-1 favorite in this field of 18. As such, he's the only horse in this race with single-digit odds. This son of Danehill Dancer is a Grade I winner, having captured the Fainting Goat Nightmares Stakes five back in Arizona. Not knowing much about Danehill Dancer, we did a little research into this sire, and found that amazing success was had in the current 3yo crop by pairing him with Fappiano as the DS. There were 111 Danehill Dancers bred as 2yos last year, and four of the top 11 have Fappiano as the DS. A match made in heaven, huh? You wouldn't think Fappiano would be such a great turf influence, but Hoarfrost Hill has raced exclusively on the green stuff and quite well indeed. He's a massive eight for 13 lifetime, and has rolled up almost $700,000 in winnings already. Say, I wonder if Given will loan me some of that money to help me get out of this lockup?
The second qualifier is WOETTE'S SLIPPER, racing for the royalstables of Ostend and representing the Benelux residency. This son of Forest Wildcat was second in last year's Breeder's Bowl Juvenile Turf, and has been the place horse in two Grade I races since. That's where he's earned his No. 5 ranking in the Classic Turf Division for 3yo Males. Woette's Slipper clearly has the class, clearly has the ability at the distance, but the colt's current form has shaken the confidence of his Benelux backers. Three back, Woette decided to stretch the horse out and try the Grade I Sydney Derby, which unfortunately became one of those "if only" races. As in, if only Woette's Slipper had skipped that race, he might not be so shaky right now. The colt ran the worst race of his life in the Sydney Derby's off-going mile and a half, and hasn't been the same since. He faded to eighth two weeks later in the 2000 Guineas, then could manage only a fourth last out in a non-graded affair. This is the second race back off a layoff, so maybe Woette's Slipper is sitting on a better race, but like we said, the confidence has to be shaken somewhat considering the last three races.
We've got another Grade I winner in FANTASTIC MIX for selurnivek's Worldwide stables, representing the Minnesota Downs residency here. This son of Linamix certainly has done his he-mare daddy proud. DAD IS CRAZY wasn't much, winning only three races in 39 career starts and not managing to earn even $50,000 in his career. While he couldn't run very fast, and was bounced around five different stables in a lackluster Sim career, Dad Is Crazy did carry the blood of Fantastic Light, which has combined rather potently with the French sire Linamix. Fantastic Mix's career was derailed temporarily this spring when selurnivek decided to take a shot on the dirt for the Bluegrass Derby, and he was last in the Sand Castle Derby Lock Prep. Like Woette's Slipper, he was well-beaten in the 2000 Guineas, but responded nicely for a non-graded stakes win when stretched out to 11 furlongs. The horse ran an eye-catching 104 at a mile and a half last out in the Smackdown, but cuts back here after failing to finish on the board at that marathon distance. It's an odd kind of prep for the Grade I Equinics, but the horse has the class and distance ability to win here.
YEPES is in very sharp condition for the Rafa Stables, representing Hispano Parlante in Equinics competition. As demonstrated in last year's Bluegrass Derby with ATAUN, Rafa knows how to have a top horse in top condition for the biggest of the Sim races. The Equinics certainly qualify for that, and indeed, Rafa appears to have this brown son of Forestly primed for a championship run here Saturday. He crushed them last out in the Grade 2 Trojan Horse Special, powering home to win by an opening 2 3/4 lengths while running a very strong speed figure of 109 going a mile and a quarter. While Woette's Slipper and Fantastic Mix can match him for class and distance ability, they cannot in terms of current form. If Yepes can run right back to that 109, he might crush this field, too, at 10-1. With that number, Yepes has the best lifetime speed figure and best last-race speed figure. The fastest horse might not always win, but he wins a lot.
Wonder what went wrong last out for PALAZZO, who comes into the Equinics off a puzzler for Dixiedotco, racing for the Pastures of Green. This son of Medician, a Machiavellian sire, was rolling right along until a shocking seventh, beaten 14 lengths in the Grade 2 Upper California Derby. Before that, he was a handsome two-for-three winning non-graded stakes, including a victory on the off-going and a second-place finish at this exact distance. The Upper California Derby was a good race, won by the No. 7 GOLDFRIARS, but it's not like it was loaded with talent. For starters, there were only nine in that race, and there is the uber-full field of 18 here for the Equinics. Considering a dismal effort in his graded debut last out, coupling with the jump to Grade I to face twice as many horses, the current class of Palazzo has to be questioned by prudent handicappers in this spot. His speed figures fit, and we know the horse can get the distance, but he's coming here off getting his fanny tanned against a shorter field of lesser horses. Maybe Dixie had the dial turned down in anticipation of the Equinics, which is a possibility because Dixiedotco is long known for Simulated racing excellence.
STAYWITHMEAVY makes his graded stakes debut here for the winningrun stable, representing the Northwest Racing Circuit. This son of Smarty Jones has yet to tangle with the Sim elite, which has served him well in non-graded stake racing. The colt is a very handy eight-for-10 lifetime on the board when racing on turf, and was knocking them dead early this year in non-graded stakes. At one point, the horse was first or second in four straight stake races, and then took down a high-priced allowance in California. Since then, however, the bloom has rather come off the rose for this handsome chestnut colt. In his last three races, Staywithmeavy has seen his run of consistent exacta finishes come to an end. He's been no better than third in his last three, which hardly inspires confidence on the leap into Grade I competition in the Equinics. The horse has shown he can get the distance, but red flags wave in terms of speed figures, class and current form. He's only busted the triple-digit speed figure once in his 17 career races. He's made good hay in non-graded races, but I'm not sure he's ready to take paychecks away from Grade I horses at this stage. At 11-1, we're going to consider this horse an underlay, especially with Rafa's prime colt right next door at 10-1.
IRISH RANGER also is making the leap to Grade I from non-graded company, but appears to be in a little better form. The brown son of Aragorn, representing Ireland for legions' Infinity Farms, has won two straight at Saturday's distance of 9.5 furlongs, and has won five of his last six races. This horse appears to deserve the chance at Grade I horses off wins in two of his last three non-graded tries. This colt has a big late kick, and closed stoutly to win last out after dropping back by 12 lengths at the second call. It is only with close inspection of Irish Ranger's past performances that you get the "ah ha!" underlining. While his current form is undeniable and the money already is in the bank, we have to give a Lee Corso-like "Not So Fast My Friend" here and point out that Irish Ranger has been earning against short fields. The colt never has raced against as many as six other horses in any of his last six races, and he gets thrown in a group of 18 here on Saturday. Both of his stakes wins were against minimum fields of four. This is an infinitely more difficult challenge than he's been facing, for sure.
There aren't many special kind of winning horses like APPLES AND ACES, who carries the banner for the CR Racers to the Equinics in the capable hands of bobcat. This is a proven barn with 46.3 percent ITM over 810 races, and no wonder with a consistent performer like Apples and Aces. A brown son of High Chapparal, this colt is just what you want to see in thoroughbred racing, a win machine. He's six-for-nine lifetime, and was an even gaudier six-for-seven up to two races ago. He got his six-race winning streak broken in the Grade 3 Fernazzle Classic Cup, and then got beat again last time when stretching out to 11 furlongs in a non-graded stake. That being said, don't get the idea that this horse is off form or anything. He was second both times, and did nothing to tarnish his fine racing record. In fact, the second in the Grade 3 may have been better than some of his non-graded or allowance victories, and it looked like 11 furlongs might have been just a few hundred yards too many for him last out. Any horse that makes a habit of winning deserves respect.
We're halfway through the field now with the regally-bred NAKED BOOT, representing Great Plains Residency 2008 for the Chilimac Stables. If you go to the homepage of this outfit, you will see a full house, aces over kings. No wonder you get a hand that good when you breed a son of Woodman with Nureyev as the DS. That's some old-school, serious blue turf blood right there, and it doesn't hurt at all to have Generous on the back end. With that kind of breeding, it's no surprise that you have have a horse getting faster with age and distance. Naked Boot won by open lengths the first time he was stretched out as far as nine furlongs. His last two races have seen him blossom into a triple-digit speed-fig horse as he's matured. This Grade I race is a lot to ask of an up-and-coming horse, but this appears to be a real-deal colt from whom we can expect several bigtime races before his career is over. Who knows? He just might be ready to introduce himself to the Sim World here at the Equinics on Saturday.
Our 10th qualifier is MOVIE HOUSE, a brown son of Theatrical who will go to post here for our good buddy Nextbonus, representing the Queensland Residency. Say, these guys sure know how to find classic sires, don't they? First Chilimac comes with the Woodman, and now Billy is raising another good one out of the brilliant Theatrical. Like the aforementioned Apples and Aces, Movie House is the most-coveted of all types of thoroughbreds: the win machine. Bill's colt is a gaudilicious five for seven lifetime, only losing in her first start against winners and her first start against graded company. That was last out in the Grade 3 Fernazzle Classic Cup, in which Movie House faded to fifth, beaten almost five lengths by Apples and Aces, who was second in that race. Our main handicapping argument in favor of Bill's horse here is his perfect three-for-three record at Saturday's distance of 9.5 furlongs. That and the win-machine angle. Oh, and the wonderful breeding. It's going to take a lot to overcome what this colt faces here, breaking widest of 18 at 16-1 in a Grade I field and needing an improved speed figure to contend.
Might we have a "now" horse in NORTHERN BAY II, representing EAAA Racing for Pogo Racing? This lightly-raced brown son of North Light makes only his eighth career start here, off double exploding triple-digit speed figures. This colt smashed a six-horse non-graded field last out going this exact distance in Virginia, running off by three lengths with a big-time 107 speed figure, second only to the 109. The horse has had plenty of rest since then, and plainly is pointed to this race. It's his graded stakes debut, but what better time than now? The horse is blossoming so fast right now with the increased distance. Who knows how far he'll run and against whom? Just a massive X-factor in this race to be qualifying all the way down here in 11th. You usually don't see a horse with this big a chance qualify behing 10 other horses. He draws down on the rail and could get a perfect trip. Very, very dangerous, it says here.
Big distance and class test here for INCLUDE MY KING, who carries the banner of the new Blazing Saddles residency for mtk mark's Shamrock Stables. This brown son of Rock of Gibraltar broke his triple-digit barrier last out when winning a non-graded stake in New Zealand. The main thing to observe about that race, other than the improved speed fig, is that it was only at a mile. The horse is asked to stretch out to 9.5 furlongs here and make the big class jump all the way up to Grade I. The colt's closing style says he might like the added distance, but Include My King is being asked to do two new things at once, jumping both in class and distance. Whatever happens here Saturday, the Shamrock Stables are to be congratulated on a shrewd, shrewd claim, picking this horse up for $50,000 back in February. It's not too often you see a horse who's eligible for starters going into the gate for the Equinics.
MONGOOSE RUN is five for eight lifetime, but he's run a few clunkers, and last out was one of them. This brown son of Hurricane Run, a Montjeu sire, carries the banner of the Kentucky Horsemen into Equinics for kk1039's Hoosier Empire. Like many deep closers, Mongoose Run sometimes does not fire, but when he does, look out. It's all or nothing for this colt, as he's never hit the board when he did not win. Up until three races ago, it would have been hard to convince this reporter that this colt was Equinics capable, but then he went and ran a 102, followed up by the best race of his life when he romped with a 105 in a nine-furlong non-graded stake. If he can run back to that number, he might just show up late in this race, but it will take some proving in a Grade I. It's more likely he's not going to fire here, but what if he does?
PLEASANT EMBLEM does not have much to show for it, but at least he's been on the track with Grade I and 2 types. Badly beaten in all three graded tries so far, this chestnut son of War Emblem tries again for Ohio Thoroughbred Racing by lbailey's Legendary Stables. (This stable's homepage has a hilarious picture of the tables being turned on racing greyhounds, if any rabbit-loves want a laugh.) That photograph is some trick, but it might take an even better one to boost Pleasant Emblem into the handicapping picture here Saturday. This colt concedes a pretty significant class edge to most of the field here, having won only twice in his 14 career starts. It's hard to imagine a 2-for-14 horse winning at Equinics, but this colt has been in against them, like we said. He does have some proven ability at the distance, his late kick falling short by only a head three back in a non-graded stake at this distance. That race had 11 horses in it, and it could be that Pleasant Emblem, with his knocks and apparent poor form, has a better chance than some others who have done their winning against short non-graded fields.
I picked up my gal at the pool the other day, and I could not convince her to take a leap off the high dive. Something tells me I might have been able to persuade our old WV friend Chuckrock, who goes into the deep water with MAZZILLI for the RASH residency out of his considerable Chuckrock Conglomerate. Chuckrock is up to a sizable 50-plus stable outfit now, supporting mostly Minnesota Downs but also the new Blazing Saddles and RASH. Chuck might have some questions to answer on the Minnesota message board if Mazzilli beats out selurnivek's Fantastic Mix, but it would take some doing by a colt who's just now cleared his N3L condition. Mazzilli has been running with nowhere near the caliber of horses he meets on Saturday. While he shows he can get the distance, he just now broke his 100-speed fig barrier and may be calling for the lifeguard in this unlikely spot.
Tyedye is taking the same kind of shot with I DONT GIVE A DAN for the East-West Connection and his Big Oil Conglomerate. I would guess this is as good a time as any to congratulate the Pye Man on that wonderful picture which has been posted on the main page. What a beautiful baby! The Pye Man has not done that good a piece of work since the days of RAY OF PYE, and I'm sure the little filly is an even bigger hit than that old, great horse. As far as I Don't Give a Dan, we have a nicely-bred son of Dansili with the powerful Nureyev as the DS that broke the triple-digit speed fig barrier last out with a very nice 105. The figure was earned at nearly Saturday's distance, it can be said, and maybe racing longer at 11 furlongs for the three races before that hindered this horse's development at least speed-figure wise. It was nice to see the colt kick home to win like he did last out after fading a little in his last two. Pye is asking a lot of the horse putting him in a Grade I, and he's also doing a ROP-type training job by racing the horse every two weeks for four consecutive races ending with that June 21 victory. Pye is hoping this big vacation before the Equinics means his colt can handle the precipitous leap in class.
Normally, you probably would be quick to dismiss the horse qualifying way down in 17th, but it's not too hard to make some points in favor of DELPENN GOLD, racing for the DelPenn National out of sdmf's Black Label Stables. This is a tough outfit for starters that is winning 17 percent of more than 10,000 Sim races. In Delpenn Gold, we have a rapidly-blooming chestnut son of Sadler's Wells who was a maiden only four races ago. He finally won in his fifth career start when stretched out to 10 furlongs, and then went straight into non-graded stakes company, and successfully. He's on the board in three straight non-graded stakes going longer, and cuts back for the jump in class here. The oddsmaker gives respect at 12-1, mostly for that 104 speed figure last out that broke this horse's triple-digit barrier, and we have to give respect as well, considering where this horse comes from. Even considering his connections, however, 12-1 probably is a little short with these.
Finally, a genuine longshot in TRIPLE ROYAL, who would be a major surprise at 36-1 for Dragnil's SAF Connection, representing the Alpine Turf Club. This brown son of King of Kings is the only entrant here who has yet to break the triple-digit speed fig barrier. He was roundly trounced last out when he made his graded stake debut, when ninth beaten 20 in the Grade 2 Upper California Derby. This horse is the longest shot in this very good field of 18 horses.
GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!!
