Sure, it is the Equinics, so you�ll get a few mismatches from time to time. After all, the spirit of the competition is what is celebrated, not the competition itself. Every faction has representation, each race a mere event in a larger test.
So with eighteen horses and a democratic format that assembles races akin to a house of representatives, the range of talent can be immense. To that end, the outcomes have the potential to be either wildly unpredictable or yawningly robotic.
Saturday�s Michael J. Fox at a mile on turf demonstrates that the democratic format employed by the Equinics committee has the potential to assemble collective public anticipation.
A captivating million dollar Grade I for older horses, there is no reason to presume anything. Nobody wasted their time entering. There is not only talent, there is depth.
All but two of the eighteen have at least won at the mile distance on turf. All but two of the eighteen have at least won a stakes race. Ten are winners of graded stakes. Five are Grade I winners. Seven in the field have won a graded stakes race at a mile on turf, while four of those were able to make it a Grade I win.
Need more proof?
How would you like a chance to play a horse at 11-1 that is currently ranked number three in the turf route division? By the way, though he was beaten badly in his most recent, his two prior races resulted in wins. Both wins were in Grade I races on turf, one of which was at a mile. In fact, in his last four races at a mile, he has been defeated once, running second by a head in the Grade III Race Five Ramblings after making up a dozen lengths in the stretch.
Basketball Jones, by Smarty Jones, is a nine-time winner and earner of over $814,000 in just twenty-two career starts. A debut winner at two that made it two for two on dirt a few weeks later, Basketball Jones has been carefully managed through his career, only recently venturing into the upper echelons of competition. The patient approach has paid dividends both in the earnings column and in the career longevity department as the four-year-old has chronically seemed atop his game.
Representing the Great Plains Residency, Basketball Jones� eleventh place finish in the Grade I Smackdown five weeks ago will likely disenchant many bettors and fans. However, Great Plains members as well as the colt�s connections are likely as optimistic as I am, perhaps for many of the same reasons.
I�m not convinced that Basketball Jones� best distance isn�t seven or seven and a half furlongs. Many of his most powerful performances were in long sprints that exploited his instant acceleration and �target shooting� approach to the stretch run.
That said, he performs beautifully at a mile. He isn�t a sprinter per se, he just merely seems to be flattered by running in sprints. He is not, however, a ten furlong model. Not that I can see. His defeat in the Smackdown is of little concern, if anything, I am more assured that he will run exceptionally well off of a poor effort than if he had run a scintillating race last time.
Likewise, I similarly expect a reinvigorated Awesome Song to make his presence felt at an unjustifiably plump 15-1 on the tote board. Running bad races in a row is not in the arsenal of the four-year-old Unbridled�s Song colt. Following his odds-on, dismal sixth place finish in a fifth rate conditioned allowance, Awesome Song is poised for a big effort.
Second in his debut, he actually broke his maiden in his second start, also his stakes debut. Following consecutive defeats in graded races, Awesome Song was transitioned from the main track over to the grass course, a move that produced his second career win immediately.
He won four of his first six races on turf, quickly notching his first stakes win, and then his first graded stakes win in his very next start.
Awesome Song truly blossomed into a divisional landmark, consistently directing the world�s attention to whatever great turf race was being contested for three-year-olds. Wins in the Grade III Roy Rogers, Grade II NC Mile, as well as the Group III Arcade in Queensland asserted him as a rising star in both the sophomore and older horse divisions. Bolstering his case are a litany of fine performances that did not end in victory, including a second in the Group I St. James Tavern and a third in the Group I Mospe Cup, as well as a second in the Grade II Walnut BB Mile while facing older horses for the first time, and later, another runner-up against old horses in the Group III Kasuda Yinen Mile.
As was alluded to previously, there are few instances of chaos in the form of the Northwest Racing Circuit�s hope. He is nearly as consistent as they can be, his rare bouts with aberrant turns in form are dealt with swiftly, routinely yielding a top effort immediately following a departure from the norm.
He loves the surface and the distance. He can handle the best in the division well enough if he runs a big race. So the question is whether or not he runs a big race and I�ve unveiled my opinion.
Five Star Cadet is undefeated sprinting, having made all eighteen career starts in routes, winning seven, running second four times, and third five times while earning over a half million dollars.
The chestnut four-year-old by Motivator is a son of Five Star Rabbit, a ten time winner and earner of over $600,000, nearly a half million on turf, and nearly all in routes. Five Star Cadet is a half-brother to two winners, one of whom broke its maiden at a mile, the other on the turf, for what it is worth.
Here�s the million dollar (literally) question: Is he good enough at this point? Is he tipping his hand with his last couple of races that he has ascended past a good stakes level horse? After steady progress through conditions and maturing into an older horse, is he a Grade I horse?
Speculation makes for great testimony and I could likely have the jury back in minutes, but the facts themselves may make a case without fear of appeal.
After five turf races to begin his career, Five Star Cadet made a few forgettable appearances on dirt last summer, running reasonably well, but certainly no better than he had been on grass. So, back to turf he went and thus began a tremendous ascent.
Of his next six races, three ended in victory, essentially moving him through his allowance conditions, while also twice finishing second and once third. Ending with clearly a career best performance, this six race string led to a debut in stakes company, ending with an upset win. Again taking the next step, he tried the Group III Slowness and again, posted the upset win.
Onward to Group I company, Five Star Cadet traveled to Ireland for the Group I SonRays Daily Devotional and ran well, closing from far behind in tenth to finish a rallying third. He returned to New York for an invitational event, his most recent start, and crushed a field of fourteen others at 13-1, covering the mile in 1:33.2.
It�s much harder to argue that this consistent trend of improvement is some kind of fluke than it is to argue that this colt is just way better now than he has ever been. The GR Simsters sure hope the easier argument is in fact the more accurate; they may have the best horse, the hottest horse.
A great horse at a terrible price, Crazy Scoob is the type of horse a guy could really get behind at 18-1 or even 12-1, but at 6-1, he suddenly seems simply like another horse with a good chance.
Just an honest, allowance level �steady eddie� for most of his three and four-year-old years, the son of Awesome Again blossomed as he approached age five last fall. Beginning in November of last year and ending with this April, Crazy Scoob put together a string of four wins and two second place finishes in six starts, leading to his graded stakes debut in May, the Group III Port Marshua in Hong Kong.
With a career best performance at 7-1, he captured the race with relative ease, prompting a trip to Ascot for the Group II Queen Sam in which he led throughout until the closing yards, beaten less than a length and third. Three weeks ago he was in Newmarket for the Group III High Lady Cup in which he stalked, made the lead briefly in mid-stretch and eventually tapered off to finish second by two.
The CR Racers have to like the way the race figures to unfold. He�s not going to be fifteen behind with three-eighths to run and thirteen horses to pass. And really, they don�t even have to so much root for him to run a big race as they need to root against a big races from the competition. He is what he is and he�ll run hard. Is his �best race� the best �best race�? I�m not inclined to believe that it is, but what makes a trainer feel good is leading one up and knowing that the others have to run to beat your horse, not the other way around.
For a completely different reason, but like Crazy Snoob, Unintentionally is a very playable horse, but you�d like to see a much better price than the one offered. A mere 13-1 on a horse that routinely alternates great efforts with dismal eleventh place finishes for no apparent reason when Basketball Jones is 11-1 makes Unintentionally seem like a tough pill to swallow despite his merits.
A two-time Grade II winner on turf at a mile, the son of Dixieland Band took Sweden�s Group II Tette Mile Classic at age three and then this past April, at age four, won the Grade II Lone Star Mile.
But in the mix, there are drubbings in the Mospe Cup and the Fort Marshua. Then there are a couple of mediocre races as well.
An earner of over $800,000, winning eight of twenty-four with another eight second place finishes, Unintentionally, like many of the others is plenty good enough to get the job done for his EAAA Racing connections. Unlike several of the others, he isn�t handicapped by the distance, or in need of a form reversal to get the job done. His good form is a sloppy form. Good race, terrible race, average race, fantastic race, good race. When things go right, when he fires, he�s as tough as any. The rest of the time, he�s far too average to get the job done with a field like this one.
The crowd from the longstanding DelPenn Residency ships in a �tough to love� four-year-old by Green Desert. Judas has made a minor check short of a half-million in his career with only a spattering of overall success against graded competition. Perhaps inconsistent or erratic, he may simply be still immature enough that tackling top caliber rivals race in and race out is simply too steep a task.
Still, his wins in the Group II Jockey Club Classic and the Grade III Royal Calm demonstrate his talent, and in particular, his ability to lay a perfect trip just off the pace around two turns on the turf.
Of immense concern is his diligent need to follow a top effort with a complete atrocity of a race, ordinarily following a major win with a glorified gallop to defeat. And a bad defeat at that. He did not win his most recent race but he was a strong second at 23-1 with a speed rating that is on par with his best. Handicapping the race involves handicapping this horse in particular.
Six-year-old Sip of Saki has been getting the Lava Man treatment lately. Is he washed up? Should he quit? When you make four million bucks and win fourteen races, people get critical easily and quickly when things aren�t quite so rosy.
The son of Sakhee ran fourteen times in 2007, winning five races, four Grade I races and a Grade II, while also finishing second in the Grade I Breeder�s Bowl Mile. In 2008, he is one for five. The lone win, a minor stakes win in his debut this year.
In other words, he has lost his last four races, a couple of which weren�t uplifting performances. But, I doubt the folks from the Ohio Residency are cutting their collective losses yet backing this colt. He has never been precisely the pinnacle of consistency. Granted, losing four in a row with a couple of bad beats isn�t typical, but folks, this guy here can boast four Grade I wins last year and a second in the Breeder�s Bowl Mile. It was just last year and it isn�t as though he has done nothing at age six.
This is Grade I talent defined. Is he past his prime? Is he off form? Maybe, maybe not, maybe both. This is not a horse that I would consider dismissing as a win candidate simply on the merits of a 2008 resume. I may be cautious in how I consider the risk involved in centralizing a betting approach on the merits of his chances. But he won�t get tossed off any tickets here.
Paycheck has the distinction of scoring at least one graded stakes win in each of his first two racing seasons, taking the Grade III Flying Saucer at age two and the Group I 2000 Guineas as a three-year-old. However, he has made it through seven months and five starts this year, and though he has two wins, a restricted allowance and a minor stakes win, his form has not been encouraging.
An earner of well over a million dollars, the son of Montjeu has fallen almost completely off of the divisional leader boards since the waning months of his three-year-old campaign. The Queensland Residency is hoping that he can not only find his old form, but improve on it and show that there may be a future in top races as an older horse.
Easily one of my favorite horses in the field, Mr. Inconspicuous is a much better horse than most of his rivals in here. Unfortunately, I really, truly do not believe that he can effectively run the one mile distance against a field of this depth and experience. And I�m sure that the connections, as well as the Alpine Turf Club were praying for rain prior to Saturday.
The son of Aptitude is also a millionaire, eleven thousand shy of a million and a half, winning ten of his twenty-nine career races.
But take a look at his off-track resume - five starts, two wins, three seconds and over a million in earnings. He has literally made over two-thirds of his money in five races over bad turf courses. Now, he isn�t inept over firm going. It�s just that nobody was going to run to the window and start thinking about two million in career earnings unless there was some rain over the smoggy skies in China.
Like father, like son? Four-year-old Rock Ballad, based on the Dixieland Band runner Lyric Poet, is in many ways a chip off the old block. Lyric Poet was an eleven time winner, including eight stakes wins, two of which were graded wins, all on turf, earning over a half million dollars. Rock Ballad, by Seeking the Gold, is nine for twenty-six with $1,116,600 bankrolled, already a six-time stakes winner with three graded wins, including the Group I Mospe Cup.
Unfortunately, there are some striking similarities that may not bode well as a predictor of Saturday�s performance.
Lyric Poet was probably most prolific early in his career. While he still ran creditable races and occasionally even a masterful race against good horses later in his career, his most consistent and impressive form is that from the age of two to early in his four-year-old campaign.
Rock Ballad appears to be headed down the same path. After a season of consistent excellence as a juvenile, culminating with a Grade I placing in his first graded stakes appearance, he blossomed into a stellar sophomore.
His three-year-old season began with a solid third place finish in the Grade III Panhandle Derby, followed by a pair of forgettable losses. Rock Ballad found his gear, winning three straight, an allowance, followed by a minor stakes race, and ending with the Grade III Black Velvet Turf. A trip overseas landed a runner-up finish in the Group II Tettle Mile behind Saturday�s rival Unintentionally, and then a few weeks later, a smashing win in the Group I Mospe, defeating that rival.
The season ended with a fantastic second place finish in the Grade I Penn Mile, his first test against older horses.
Here is where the irony leads to doubts regarding Rock Ballad.
Rock Ballad�s next start, his debut as a four-year-old, resulted in a stellar win, a powerful gate to wire romp in the Grade III Strange Brew Turf. Lyric Poet also won the Grade III Strange Brew as an older horse, contesting the lead early and powering away easily to victory. It was Lyric Poet�s last graded stakes win, and frankly, his last race of any significance as applied to his career. He won just one of his next fourteen, a minor stakes race, hitting a 104 speed rating, the best number he posted after the Strange Brew and one of only three times he managed to break into triple digits before retirement.
Rock Ballad has run five times since the Strange Brew win. He is winless since. Fourth, sixth, eighth, thirteenth, and seventh. 6-1, 3-1, 9-1, 7-1, and 8-1. He didn�t try the Breeder�s Bowl Classic five times in a row. In fact, those five defeats have combined for a margin of defeat in excess of forty lengths. That is to say, he isn�t getting close. The legendary Vermont residency is usually bubbling with good vibes and positive energy, so I�ll refrain from further elaboration on my genetic conspiracy theory.
Spinning Summer is one of those horses that is just too cheap looking on paper to really give serious consideration to his chances at winning the race, but given his late running approach and seemingly random instances of brilliance, he is not easy to merely cast from consideration.
After a career debut on dirt, it was straight to the grass course and quickly he reeled of three in a row, ending his three-year-old year with an allowance win against older horses. It took only four races and two second place finishes to win his first race at age four, a stakes win nonetheless, the first of those as well. After a pair of poor efforts, he won his final allowance condition and again, began another streak of futility, this one lasting five races.
But again he bounced back into form, this time throwing down another three race win streak, including a pair of stakes victories.
He has five starts since that win streak, winning one. He has never won a graded race, in fact he has contested a graded stakes race just once, finishing third in the Grade III Jennifer Connley BC Turf Handicap.
The representative of the Minnesota crowd is one of those horses that when you look at his past performances, you just see two different horses.
When you start concentrating on the blocks of three and four and five horrible races in a short time, you can�t even conceive of his factoring into this race. But when you concentrate on the blocks of good races, again, especially when you consider that he runs from well off the pace, you start to see where he could be a meddling presence late in the action should he fire one of those good ones.
K�s Intense is a late running threat to some level of competition, but does this group represent that level?
Hispano Parlante is pinning their hopes on this hard knocking four-year-old by Shamardal, banking that their deliberate and less-than-ambitious campaign does not necessarily preclude the notion that he could in fact beat a field of this caliber.
K�s Intense has run just twenty times, winning seven and running second seven times while earning over a third of a million dollars. A reasonably versatile runner when within his realm of comfort, he can run a top race anywhere from seven eighths of a mile to ten furlongs, but seems most effective between seven and a half and eight and a half.
The reality is that he has never tried to tackle anything of this magnitude and frankly, he hasn�t been at any time in his career an overwhelming force at any level. What he is to this point is an honest horse with a flattering running style. For that reason, he isn�t immune from getting a small piece of the pie in this race - it just isn�t very likely.
The form on Apt To Win states that he is five for twenty-three, but to my handicapping eye, this is a colt that is three for eight and has finished in the top three two-thirds of the time. He is simply a different, a better horse on grass and it took nearly into his four-year-old year to get there.
But, also to my eye, as cautiously and deliberately as the son of Aptitude has been managed, I see a horse that really isn�t all that well intended in here. It seems almost as if this representative of the Kentucky Horsemen was entered here despite truly preferring to find a minor stakes or maybe a Grade III to test the waters.
This is not an easy race and this colt has never been thrown to the wolves, never been asked to do very much more than what has already been asked of him. And yet, here he is in his first graded race, a Grade I, a major event with eighteen grizzled veterans to cope with.
I actually like the horse, but I�m not convinced that the trainer thinks he belongs here yet. That�s enough to steer me away even if I could overcome the overwhelming void in credentials.
Ireland lends its influence in the form of American Werewolf, a well-bred son of Storm Cat with eight career wins and just shy of a half million in earnings. Another slow developing colt that blossomed with a move to turf in his sophomore season, the four-year-old brought a two for eight mark on dirt to his grass debut and quickly reeled off a string of three in a row. He cracked the exacta in his first five turf races, nailing down a stakes win and running second in the Group III Craven Stakes.
He regressed a month later in the Group II Ascot Mile, finishing fifth, and was subsequently eased at 9-2 in the Group III Fernazzle Classic at a mile and a quarter.
He bounced back however, and ended his 2007 season with three straight wins, including a pair of stakes. After a long break, he returned this year for a hopeful four-year-old season that has been nothing short of a complete disaster.
A bad sixth in his season debut, the Kong�s Redhead Handicap, was followed by an equally disappointing seventh in the Group II Arcade. Rain blasted the turf course in New South Wales for the Group I Sydney Mile and when American Werewolf rallied nicely to earn third, people questioned whether he was back on track or if he had merely made the most of a course that compromised his competition.
That question seems to have been answered as he has returned with two starts, a lethargic eighth in the Group II Queen Sam and then yet another slow roll across the wire forty behind the field at 2-1 in the Father Gold Memorial.
So now what? Well, the last time he limped past the wire, he bounced back a couple of months later with a three race win spree. But hey, he has to make it to win number one this time and he didn�t find the ideal return spot for a colt that has been as likely to finish in the back half than the front half of the pack this year against easier fields.
Maybe the hottest horse in the field, Big Day does not deserve to be relegated to page fourteen of this brief synopsis.
But, how excitable can you get about trying to use a five-year-old as a headliner when he has never so much as tried a graded race. He has exactly one stakes win in his career and he did that in his most recent start. And before you think maybe I�m mangling the truth by talking about one stakes win - no, he isn�t some lightly raced sucker that has rolled through conditions.
Big Day has run thirty-three times and has won just five and made only $120,000. Only Sip of Saki has more starts, thirty-nine, and he�s a fifth place finish from hitting four million dollars. In fact, Crazy Scoob is the only other in here to have hit the thirty start mark and even he is at $398,000. Big Day has never even won a race at a mile, on either surface.
But like Apt to Win, Big Day is just now getting good and it seems to have a whole lot to do with the turf course.
After a losing streak that lasted for nine conditioned allowance races, trainer G. G. Geegee lowered the hammer and fired him into a $25,000 claimer.
He got beat and he got claimed. The new trainer and current trainer, Joe Nobiz of Shamrock Stables, had about as much success in those conditioned allowances as G. G. Geegee was having, but unlike Geegee, Nobiz had enough of it after two races and decided to see what would happen on turf.
What happened was that he went off at 6-1 in his turf debut and led by many midstretch and barely got beat at the wire, finishing second. What happened next was back to back wins, one of which earned him by far his best speed rating to date. His stakes career began at this point and it went fairly well - progressing from a third to a second to a win, and speed ratings that escalated to a low of 99 to a winning high figure of 115.
Blazing Saddles Residency is unlikely to win the race, but along with Joe Nobiz and the rest of Shamrock Stables, they ought to have fun watching a troll that got stomped in a $25,000 claimer a few months ago take them to stakes wins and now a Grade I appearance in the Equinics, a big day indeed.
The EWC Residency comes into the event a little light with their hope, four-year-old SJ�s Fandamonium, a son of Ghostzapper that proved early in his career that he was to be a turf specialist.
Unfortunately, in the subsequent fifteen turf races, he has yet to prove himself a Grade I specialist. Or even just a graded stakes specialist. Or really, even for that matter, a minor stakes specialist. He has made minor stakes appearances in ten of his last twelve races. Of those ten starts, he has just two wins, one of which was his stakes debut, the first of the twelve most recent starts.
While he hasn�t been dreadful while jumping around the minor stakes scene, he has hardly been a frightening force either. A win here and a win there, a few minor placings, a few out and out drubbings.
He�s a nice horse, just overmatched here.
Likewise, Steal The Cat is just a variation on the same mold, a nice little allowance and minor stakes horse that has shown this level of talent to be just too overwhelming.
By Belong To Me and out of the Tactical Cat mare Tactical Kitten, Steal The Cat is a half to two winners, and has himself banged out over $200,000 in a twenty-eight race career. His five wins began with his turf debut, a maiden win in his sixth career start. Since then, he has diligently stayed the course in conditioned allowance races, spending fifteen months and seventeen of eighteen races in allowance ranks.
Though he did run a solid second in his lone minor stakes appearance, it wasn�t until after his fifth win, fourth allowance win, that he again tried stakes company in April of this year. Performing surprisingly well from post fourteen, Steal The Cat ran a solid fourth in the Grade II Lone Star Mile, but was absolutely zero factor in two subsequent graded races, eleventh in the Grade III Amerika Stakes and ninth, beaten nearly thirty lengths in the Grade I NY Island Handicap.
Last time, dropping from a Grade I to a conditioned allowance at a flat mile on turf, the exacta scenario, combination of variables that produced all five of his career wins, he ran a dreary sixth.
There is really no case to be made for him. If he wins, you just are left scratching your head figuring it could never happen like that again. That would probably be fine with the kind souls at RASH Residency.
Silly Sod, the Benelux Residency hopeful, deserves credit for loving the mile distance on turf. Beyond that, he completes the segment on horses that really can probably not win the race, but are still very nice horses.
By Kissin Kris, Silly Sod is the lone member of the cast to be short of six figure earnings, but his five for fifteen mark and humble beginnings make it hard to come down on him too much.
After debuting on the main track for $50,000 claiming, he moved to turf and dropped to face $35,000 maiden claimers, winning nicely and beginning a solid campaign in allowance ranks. He won three of his next seven, ascending the allowance conditions before facing tougher allowance foes in style, running a third, twice second, and winning once in his next four.
That string prompted a trip to stakes company where he was soundly dismantled in the Pompous Project, finishing tenth beaten a long way. Proving it wasn�t a fluke, his most recent appearance featured a thirteenth place finish in the Gala Boomer Memorial, about as dismal as the prior.
Those two stakes flops are hardly encouraging as he quadruple jumps in class to face ten times the quality and depth he has ever tackled and from here, the prognosis isn�t very good.
Handicapper�s Ramblings:
I quit ever posting selections in handicapping style format long ago, but this is a great race with great horses at great prices. I can�t convince any gullible gamblers strongly enough that they need to race to the windows and bet win and place money by the fistfuls on Basketball Jones at 11-1. I�m not a big win-place bettor, but this is a tough spot to lay down the law and try to hook up a key horse with a handful of others. There are a dozen horses that could run first, second, or third. But, in the spirit of disclaimers absolving me of poor advice and a desire to take a stab and look brilliant when the exacta yields $9,567.30 - well, do this: Play Basketball Jones (11-1) in an exacta box with my Fab Five: Crazy Scoob (6-1), Sip of Saki (8-1), Awesome Song (15-1), Five Star Cadet (9-1), and Spinning Summer (11-1).
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